县域人口老龄化经济压力测算与空间格局变动--以成渝地区为例

基于第五次、第六次人口普查数据,构建人口老龄化经济压力指数,采用空间自相关模型、空间误差模型,测度成渝地区人口老龄化经济压力水平并探索其空间格局变动与影响因素。结果表明:1)2000年、2010年成渝地区人口老龄化经济压力分别为全国平均水平的2.04倍、2.14倍,整体处于较大压力状态,并呈上升趋势,县域人口年龄结构升级态势明显,区域内部由隆升结构向隆升—塌缩并存转变。2)成渝地区县域人口老龄化经济压力呈“一带两圈”分布格局,成都、重庆都市圈人口老龄化经济压力较小,中间地带压力较大,并呈连片分布、逐渐扩散态势。3)县域人口老龄化经济压力具有较强空间集聚性,形成“3+2”压力集聚区,渝东北、川东北、川南地区为三大压力高值集聚区,成都、重庆两大都市圈为压力低值集聚区;压力增长呈“西快东慢、北快南慢”格局,成—德—绵经济带的边缘县域压力增长较快。4)决定县域人口老龄化经济压力集聚格局的主要因素是工业化、服务化、老龄化,工业化、服务化水平的提升有利于缓解人口老龄化经济压力程度,净迁入率对人口老龄化经济压力集聚的影响不显著。

Estimation of Economic Pressure of County Population Aging and Its Spatial Pattern Change:A Case Study of the Chengdu-Chongqing Area

Based on the data from the fifth and sixth censuses,the economic pressure index of population aging was constructed.And then the spatial autocorrelation model and the spatial error model were used to measure the level of economic pressure from an aging population in the Chengdu-Chongqing area,and to explore its spatial pattern change and influencing factors.We have obtained the following results.1)In 2000 and 2010,the economic pressure of population aging in the Chengdu and Chongqing regions was 2.04 times and 2.14 times the national average level,respectively,which means that these two regions were in a state of great economic pressure on the whole.Moreover,they showed an upward trend with the age structure of the county population upgrading significantly,and the regional structure changed from uplift to uplift-collapse coexistence.2)The economic pressure of the county aging population in the Chengdu-Chongqing area presented a distribution pattern of "one belt and two circles".The economic pressure in the Chengdu and Chongqing metropolitan areas was relatively small,while the pressure in the middle zone was more considerable,which showed a continuous distribution and a gradual diffusion trend.3)The economic pressure from aging population in the county area demonstrated an intense spatial agglomeration,forming a "3+2" pressure agglomeration area,with the northeast of Chongqing,the northeast of Sichuan and the south of Sichuan as the three high-pressure agglomeration areas,and the metropolitan areas of Chengdu and Chongqing as the two low-pressure agglomeration areas.The pressure growth showed a pattern of "fast in the west and slow in the east,fast in the north and slow in the south",and the pressure in the marginal counties of Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang Economic Belt increased rapidly.4) Industrialization,servitization,and aging are the main factors that determine the economic pressure agglomeration pattern of aging population in the county.The improvement of industrialization and servitization is conducive to alleviating the degree of economic pressure of aging population,while the net migration rate has no significant effect on the economic pressure agglomeration of aging population.