一体化进程对旅游经济的空间溢出效应——以长三角城市群为例

利用长三角城市群各地区2011—2018年的面板数据，在测算一体化指数基础上，借助空间杜宾模型揭示一体化进程对旅游经济的空间溢出效应。主要结论有：长三角城市群一体化指数在空间上分布不均衡，整体上呈现出从省会城市向周边递减的格局。空间杜宾模型能够较好地对一体化进程的溢出效应进行定量估算，从空间杜宾模型的估算结果看，长三角城市群一体化进程对旅游经济有着显著的溢出效应，本地一体化进程每提高1%，将促进周边地区旅游经济增加0.575%。就本地效应而言，一体化进程各维度对旅游经济具有显著的正向影响，基础设施一体化是其中较为重要的因素；就溢出效应而言，一体化进程各维度对旅游经济的影响均低于本地效应，基础设施一体化对周边地区的旅游经济有一定的负向影响。未来长三角城市群旅游业高质量发展一方面需要重视本地一体化，同时也要重视一体化的空间溢出效应，营造良好的周边环境，出台相关政策，加强区域间的协调与合作。

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Integration Progress on Tourism Economy:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Using the panel data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration to calculate the integration index, this article reveals the spatial spillover effect of integration process on tourism economy by means of spatial Durbin model (SDM). The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the spatial distribution of the integration index of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is unbalanced, showing a decreasing pattern from the provincial capital to the surrounding areas on the whole. Secondly, the SDM can fairly estimate the spillover effect of integration process. From the estimation results of the SDM, the integration process of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has a significant spillover effect on tourism economy. Every 1% increase in the process of local integration will promote the tourism economy of surrounding areas to increase by 0.575%. As far as the local effect is concerned, each dimension of integration has a significant positive impact on tourism economy, and infrastructure integration is one of the more important factors. In terms of the spillover effect, each dimension of integration on tourism economy is lower than local effect, and infrastructure integration has a certain negative impact on tourism economy of surrounding areas. Lastly, in the future, the high-quality development of tourism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration should not only attach importance to local integration, but also spatial spillover effect of integration, create a good surrounding environment, issue relevant policies, and strengthen regional coordination and cooperation.