中国区域农业生态效率空间演化及其驱动因素——水足迹与灰水足迹视角

将水足迹与灰水足迹指标纳入农业生态效率指标体系，运用基于非期望产出的SBM模型和Tobit面板模型对1990—2016年中国农业生态效率空间演化特征及驱动因素进行实证分析，结论如下：① 1990—2016年，中国农业水足迹和灰水足迹明显上升；中国高农业水足迹的区域重心北移，主要由长江流域转移至黄河下游地区。中国高灰水足迹地域范围明显扩大，整体由西南向东北方向移动；② 中国农业生态效率明显降低。中国农业生态效率存在明显的区域特征。华南区的农业生态效率最高。东北区、西北及长城沿线区、青藏区和西南区的农业生态效率较低，这些区域是中国农业污染治理防控的重点区；③ 中国省域农业生态效率呈现显著的空间自相关且空间上越来越趋于集聚。中国农业生态效率的空间集聚格局较为稳定，呈空间依赖与路径锁定特征；④ 中国七大区域农业生态效率演变的驱动因素存在异质性。提出中国提高农业生态效率要因地制宜采取差异化的发展策略，为促进中国农业生态效率提升和可持续发展提供科学参考。

Spatial Evolution and its Drivers of Regional Agro-ecological Efficiency in China's from the Perspective of Water Footprint and Gray Water Footprint

The water footprint and gray water footprint are integrated into the input and output index system,and the agro-ecological efficiency and spatial distribution pattern of China from 1990 to 2016 are analyzed using the SBM model based on undesired output,and Tobit panel model mothoods.The main findings are as follows:1)From 1990 to 2016,agricultural water footprint and gray water footprint increased significantly;The regional center of gravity of high agricultural water footprint moved northward,and transferred from the Yangtze River basin to the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The range of high ash water footprint in China is obviously expanded,and the whole area of ash water footprint moves from southwest to northeast;2)China’s agricultural ecological efficiency is obviously decreasing,and there are obvious regional characteristics in China’s agricultural ecological efficiency.The agricultural ecological efficiency in South China is the highest,while that in Northeast China,Northwest China,regions along the Great Wall,Qinghai and Tibet,and Southwest China is relatively low.These regions are the key areas of agricultural pollution control and prevention in China;3)The results show that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation of agricultural ecological efficiency in China,and it tends to gather more and more spatially;4)There are differences in driving factors of agricultural ecological efficiency evolution in seven regions of China.It is suggested that China’s agricultural ecological efficiency should be adapted to local conditions and differentiated development should be adopted.This article provides a reference for promoting agricultural ecological efficiency and sustainable development in China.