中美博弈下的经济权力空间动态性与异质性

随着中国的和平崛起,中美地缘关系进入大博弈时代。经济权力竞争成为中美博弈的战略重点,然而其地域空间变化规律鲜有论及。为此,论文基于非对称依赖和均势理论,构建投资权力和贸易权力的脆弱性—敏感性模型,动态揭示中美两国经济权力的空间变化规律及其趋势。研究发现：① 中美两国经济权力空间由美国雄踞全球逐渐演变为两国东西半球平分秋色的格局。② 中美经济权力的空间均势区范围不断缩小,两国经济权力竞争重点区域由亚洲、非洲和大洋洲向欧洲、南美洲转移。③ 中美经济权力空间变化具有多样性,呈现稳定的空间粘性、动态的空间摇摆性耦合特征,形成恒稳区、介稳区、平衡区和跳动区等类型。④ 中美对外投资和贸易权力的国际依赖性程度具有显著的空间同配性和一定的空间异配性,都以经济双低依赖型为主,同时形成投资导向型、贸易导向性依赖等多样类型。⑤ 中美经济权力均势区表现出明显的空间差异性,形成边缘孤立型、能源禀赋型、经济发达型、战略通道型4种类型,其中战略通道型地区是两国政治权力博弈的焦点和重点。

Spatiotemporal variations and types of the economic power zones of China and the United States

With the peaceful rising of China, the geopolitical relationship between China and the United States has entered the era of great game. Economic power is a key element in the Sino-US geopolitical game, but its spatial changes are rarely discussed. Based on the theory of asymmetric dependence and balance of power, this study constructed a fragility-sensitivity model of investment power and trade power, and dynamically revealed the patterns and trends of spatial changes of economic power of China and the United States. The research indicates that: 1) The economic power space of China and the United States has gradually evolved from US dominance in the world to a pattern where the eastern and western hemispheres are equally divided. 2) The area with spatially balanced power between China and the United States continues to shrink. The key areas of competition between the two countries have shifted from Asia, Africa, and Oceania to Europe and South America. 3) The changes in the space of economic power between China and the United States are diversified, which shows stable spatial viscosity and dynamic spatial oscillating coupling characteristics, forming stable areas, metastable areas, balanced areas, and bouncing areas. 4) The degree of international dependence of China and the United States on foreign investment and trade powers has significant spatial homogeneity and certain spatial heterogeneity. Both of them are dominated by double-high dependence and double-low dependence, forming various types such as investment-oriented dependence and trade-oriented dependence. 5) The Sino-US economic power balance zone shows obvious spatial difference, forming four types: peripheral isolation, energy endowment, economically developed, and strategic route. The strategic route regions are the focus of the political power game between the two countries.