基于户籍类型比较的流动人口城市落户意愿影响机制研究

流动人口城市落户意愿是提高户籍城镇化水平，推进市民化进程的关键影响因素。从个体初始因素、中介因素和流入地城市因素3个维度，应用多水平回归模型，研究了流动人口落户意愿的影响因素，并着重比较了农业户籍流动人口和非农户籍流动人口落户意愿影响机制的差异。研究发现非农户籍流动人口比农业户籍流动人口有更强的在流入地城市落户的意愿。初始能动性越高落户意愿越高、城市吸引力越大流动人口落户意愿越高，随时间变化的中介因素是落户意愿变化的关键变量。农业户籍流动人口由于城市生活经历较少，个人能动性较弱，对各种因素更加敏感，影响其落户意愿的因素多且复杂；非农户籍流动人口个人能动性强，城市经历丰富，影响落户意愿的因素少，且对流入地城市的品质和区位有着更强的选择偏好。农业户籍与非农户籍流动人口落户意愿的差异背后折射的是城乡二元结构的深远影响。

Household Registration Differences and the Intention of Hukou Transfer of Floating Population in Urban China

The household registration(can be known as Hukou)transfer intention of floating population is the key factor to improve the new-type urbanization.The factors influencing the willingness of Hukou transfer are very complex.However,the existing studies have paid little attention to the differences between the floating population with non-agricultural household registration and with agricultural household registration.Besides,the classification of various influencing factors is not clear,which makes the mechanism research lack of depth,as a result,the relevant policy suggestions put forward are limited.This study analyses the factors influencing the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer through a multi-level regression logit model from three dimensions of initial agency,mediating factors and urban factors.It focuses on the differences of Hukou transfer intention between non-agricultural and agricultural floating population,and explore the influence mechanism.Data comes from the Survey of Social Integration and Mental Health of Migrants,which is conducted by the Department of Floating Population Service and Management of the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China in 2013 and 2014.The results showed that the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer gradually adjusted with the changes of themselves,their families and the external environment.It is found that people with non-agricultural household registration have stronger willingness to transfer their Hukou in the cities than people with agricultural household registration.The initial factors,mediating factors and urban factors all have significant influences on both non-agricultural population and agricultural population.The stronger the personal agency is,the stronger the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer;the stronger urban attraction,the stronger the willingness of the floating population to transfer their household registration;the mediating factors that change with time is the key to the change of Hukou transfer intention.It is worth noting that the effects are different between agricultural and non-agricultural floating population:First of all,the initial factors such as education and the district of their hometown have a greater impact on agricultural population;Secondly,the influence of mediating factors,such as age and the length of going out,on agricultural population is greater than non-agricultural population.Thirdly,the non-agricultural population pay more attention to the quality of the city and have stronger personal agency in the choice of the household registration destinations.The agricultural floating population are more sensitive to almost all kinds of factors due to less urban life experience and weak personal agency,and the factors affecting their Hukou transfer intention are more complex.The non-agricultural floating population have strong personal agency,few factors affecting their intention of Hukou transfer,and have a stronger preference for the quality and location of the city.Combined with the main conclusions of this study and the problems encountered in the process of urbanization,we put forward to policy suggestions to further promote the citizenization of the floating population.