| 博斯腾湖流域气候变化及其对径流的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭冬,吐尔逊.哈斯木,张同文,尚华明,喻树龙,姜盛夏,刘蕊,石仁娜.加汗,王兆鹏,郭玉琳.博斯腾湖流域气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].新疆气象,2022,16(1):87-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭冬 吐尔逊.哈斯木 张同文 尚华明 喻树龙 姜盛夏 刘蕊 石仁娜.加汗 王兆鹏 郭玉琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆阿勒泰地区气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41975095和U1803245)；天山青年计划-杰出青年科技人才项目（2019Q007）；新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题（2018D04028）；第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究子专题“天山-帕米尔区极端天气气候事件与灾害风险”（2019QZKK010206）；公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目（IDM2018004）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用博斯腾湖流域开都河、黄水沟和清水河的出山口水文站月径流量和气象站月平均数据，开展变化特征分析和径流变化对气候因子的响应研究。结果表明，博斯腾湖流域年际气候变化以气温上升为主，降水量增加趋势不显著；域内主要河流径流量持续上升。突变检验发现，三条入湖河流90年代之前径流量增加主要是域内降水量增加的结果，随后受气温上升导致冰雪消融加快也对径流量的增加有贡献。相关分析结果显示，博斯腾湖三条入湖河流年径流量变化主要受4月和7月降水因子影响。此外，开都河的径流变化还表现出对8月气温和降水的显著响应，同时开都河流域集水区冰川的面积和占比均大于黄水沟和清水河流域，这表明冰川融水补给对开都河径流的影响大于黄水沟和清水河。所建立的气候因子-径流量多元线性回归模型，能够很好的模拟开都河、黄水沟和清水河的径流变化过程，证明了博斯腾湖流域水文变化受气候因子的显著影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 博斯腾湖流域 特征分析 水资源 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/2/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/5/26 0:00:00 |
Climate change and its impact on runoff in the Bosten Lake Basin, China |
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| Institution: | Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Institude of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of monthly runoff of outbound hydrological station and monthly average meteorological station of Kaidu River, Huangshuigou River and Qingshuihe River in Bosten Lake Basin, the characteristics of runoff change and the response of runoff change to climate factors were analyzed.The results show that the annual climate change in Bosten Lake Basin is mainly caused by the air temperature rise, and the precipitation change as non-significant. The runoff is increasing in Bosten Lake Basin. After having abrupt test, it is found that the increase of runoff in the three rivers before 1990s is mainly due to the increase of precipitation in the region, and the accelerated melting of ice and snow due to the rising air temperature also contributes to this increase. The results of relationship analysis showed that the annual runoff variation of the three rivers was mainly affected by precipitation in April and July. In addition, the runoff variation of Kaidu River also significantly response to the temperature and precipitation in August. At the same time, the area and proportion of glaciers in the catchment area of Kaidu River Basin were greater than those in the Huangshuigou River Basin and Qingshuihe River Basin, which indicating that the influence of glacier melting water supply on the runoff of Kaidu River is greater than that of Huangshuigou River and Qingshuihe River. The established multiple linear regression model of climate factor-runoff can perfectly simulate the runoff change process of Kaidu River, Huangshuigou River and Qingshuihe River, which proves that the hydrological change of Bosten Lake Basin is significantly affected by climate factors. |
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| Keywords: | Climatic change The Boston Lake Basin Characteristics runoff |
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