江西省人工增雨作业指数预报研究

根据人工增雨作业需求和作业工具布局．结合全省精细化天气预报定量产品和多普勒雷达回波等资料。研究确定了江西省人工增雨作业指数及其计算方法。并建立了相应的业务运行及发布系统。研究结果表明，人工增雨作业指数的发布包括定时发布和不定时发布2种。并可分为可作业区（3级）、作业准备区（2级）、作业关注区（1级）、不适合作业区（0级）4个等级；针对这4个等级。为各地人影办提供了相应的措施和对策。另外。在TS评分标准的基础上。研究制订了该指数预报效果的评定方案。并对2003年的作业情况进行了效果评估。评估结果表明。所提供的作业指数预报产品直观、指导性强．提高了人工增雨的作业效率。减少了不必要的劳动和消耗。

Research About Artificial Precipitation Stimutation Task Index Prediction In Jiangxi Province

In terms of the requirement in artificial precipitation stimutation and distribution of instrument, in combination with quantitative output of fine weather forcasting and Doppler radar echo data, etc. the artificial precipitation stimutation task index of Jiangxi Province and its computation are determined, and moreover,corresponding operational work and distribution system are established. the research result shows as follows: there are two conditions for distribution of artificial precipitation stimutation task index including timing and no timing,and four levels can be partitioned as workable zone(the third level),work-preparing zone(the second level),work-attenting zone(the first level) and work impossible zone(the zeroth level);and aiming at this four levels, relevant step and countermearsure are provided for regional Weather Modification Office. in addition, on the basis of TS graded criterion,graded scheme for forcasting effect of the index is formulated, and effect evaluation of 2003 is carried out.the evaluation result indicates:the task index prediction which is intuitionistic and of good guidance, improves the efficiency of artificial precipitation stimutation, and decreases unnecessary labor and consumption.