太阳活动23周上升阶段质子事件的 预报分析

以２２周太阳活动低年（１９９３－１９９５）质子事件及其对应活动区的综合分析结果为判据，预报２３周太阳活动上升阶段的质子事件．从１９９７年１１月开始到１９９８年１２月，用该方法预报的质子事件共６个，报准３个，不确定一个，虚报１个，漏报１个（太阳背面产生的事件）．本文对用该方法预报的结果进行了分析讨论，并与世界警报中心的预报结果进行了比对，结果表明，该方法对于质子事件的短期预报是有效的．

An Analysis of Short-Term Prediction of Solar Proton Events in the Ascending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

Six proton events are predicted in the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 23 (1997.111998.12), based on the results of a correlation analysis between the proton events and active regions in the descending phase of Solar Cycle 22 (1993-1995). Of the 6 events, 3 were predicted correctly, 1 was a false prediction, 1 was missed (event on the far side of the solar surface) and the last one has an uncertain status. The predictions of RWC-Beijing and WWA are compared and the result shows that the method of prediction used by us is very effective for the short-term prediction of proton events.