2013年6月30日皖南山区对流性暴雨成因及漏报原因分析

利用地面自动站、雷达、FY-2E红外卫星云图，以及Laps等资料，对2013年6月30日发生在皖南山区的一次局地、突发性的对流性暴雨过程的成因和预报失误原因进行了分析，结果表明：首先，由中尺度地面辐合线和中气旋触发形成的MCS是这次过程的直接影响系统；中高层的干空气侵入有利于对流不稳定层结的形成与发展，导致对流性暴雨产生；强降水中心出现在对流云团发展强盛到成熟阶段，落区位于MCS的中心附近或MCS上风一侧、边界光滑整齐的位置；此外，地形阻挡产生强迫上升运动对MCS的发展起到促进和加强作用。其次，CAPE值、K指数、SI指数等物理量，以及反射率因子、中气旋、回波顶高、垂直液态含水量等雷达产品的演变对对流性暴雨的发生、发展、结束有一定的指示作用。在有利的天气形势下，当出现大于50dBz的强回波，且配合气旋性辐合时，可能出现大于30mm／h的强降水。这次暴雨过程漏报的主要原因是：大尺度天气形势配置不是很有利，对中层干侵入的分析不够深入和未能充分运用中小尺度的Laps分析资料等。

Cause Analysis of Convective Rainstorm in Southern Anhui Mountainous Area and its Missing Prediction on June 30, 2013

By using the data of automatic weather station, radar, FY -2E infrared satellite images and Laps, the causes of a local sudden convective rainstorm process in southern mountainous area of An- hui province on June 30, 2013 and its missing prediction were analyzed. The results showed that, first of all, the MCS triggered by surface mesoseale convergence line and cyclone is the direct impact system of the rainstorm process. The middle and high level dry air intrusion is propitious to the formation and devel- opment of convective unstable stratification, which leads to the convective rainstorm. The heavy rainfall emerges at developing to the mature stage of strong convective cloud cluster, falling area is located near the center area of MCS or the smooth and tidy boundary position at the upper side of MCS. In addition, an upward motion forced by the topographic barrier has promoted and strengthened the development of MCS. Secondly, the evolution of physical parameters including CAPE value, K index, SI index , etc. and the radar products such as reflectivity, mesocyclone, echo top height, vertical integrated liquid water content, have an indication of the occurrence, development, the end of convective rainstorm. In favora- ble weather situations, when strong echo appears greater than 50 dBz, together with the cyclonic conver- gence, there will be a possible heavy rainfall greater than 30 mm/h. The main cause of the rainstorm process missing prediction is that large scale synoptic configuration was not very favorable, the analysis of middle-level dry air intrusion was not deep enough and small scale Laps data hadn＇t been fully used, etc.