“大村庄制”合并村庄脆弱性评估——以宁夏永宁县试验区为个案

宁夏永宁县试验区内各合并村庄受到外部扰动时会表现出一定程度的脆弱性,并通过敏感性与适应力状况表达出来。基于结构方程模型原理构建合并村庄测量模型、一阶脆弱性SEM,运算处理试验区内8个合并村庄1600份有效问卷的调查数据,优化出合并村庄脆弱性评估指标,估算评估指标权重;依据优化出的脆弱性评估指标及评估指标权重构建灰色定权聚类模型,从扰动、敏感性、适应力3个维度评估合并村庄的脆弱性。结果表明:试验区内合并村庄整体上扰动效果差、敏感性较强、适应力一般。脆弱性规律为扰动效果好则敏感性弱、适应力强、脆弱性程度低,扰动效果差则敏感性较强或强、适应力一般、脆弱性程度高或较高。

Vulnerability Assessment of Combined Villages under"Big Village System" :A Case Study in Yongning County of Ningxia

The combined villages in the Yongning County Experimental Zone in Ningxia will show a certain degree of vulnerability when they are subjected to external disturbances,which are expressed through their sensitivity and adaptability.Based on the principle of structural equation model,the combined village measurement model and first-order vulnerability SEM are constructed,the survey data of 1600 effective questionnaires from 8 combined villages in the experimental area are calculated and processed,the vulnerability assessment indicators of the combined villages are optimized,and the weight of the assessment indicators is estimated,which effectively avoids the subjective error in artificially determining the vulnerability assessment indicators and their weights.According to the optimized vulnerability assessment indicators and the weights of the assessment indicators,a gray fixed-weight clustering model is constructed to evaluate the vulnerability of the combined village from the three dimensions of disturbance,sensitivity,and adaptability.The results show that the combined villages in the experimental area have poor disturbance effect,strong sensitivity,and general adaptability;the law of vulnerability is that when the disturbance effect is good,the sensitivity is weak,the adaptability is strong,and the degree of vulnerability is low.When the disturbance effect is poor,the sensitivity is stronger or strong,the adaptability is average,and the degree of vulnerability is high or higher.