| 山西地区未来3年地震强度预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷建设,郭星全,兰从欣. 山西地区未来3年地震强度预测[J]. 高原地震, 1998, 0(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷建设 郭星全 兰从欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学研究生院(雷建设)，山西省地震局(郭星全)，北京市地震局(兰从欣) |
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| 摘 要： | 选取１９７０年至１９９７年时间段内发生在山西地区的逐年最大震级，采用门限自回归原理进行建模，经过反复对比，选取最佳模型，预测得知该区未来３年（至２０００年）发生强震（Ｍｓ＞６．０）的可能性不大。
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| 关 键 词： | 强震预测 门限回归 模型 山西地区 |
EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SHANXI AREA IN THE COMING THREE YEARS |
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| Lei Jianshe. EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SHANXI AREA IN THE COMING THREE YEARS[J]. Plateau Earthquake Research, 1998, 0(3) |
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| Authors: | Lei Jianshe |
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| Abstract: | Based on the threshold autoregressive model and annual maximum magnitude in the period from 1970 to 1997 in Shanxi area,by studying and comparing the models repeatly,the authors have chosen the optimal model.The result shows that the possibility of strong earthquakes (till the year 2000) is very small. |
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| Keywords: | Strong earthquake prediction Threshold regression Model Shanxi area |
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