区域人地耦合系统脆弱性及其评价指标体系

从概念界定与目标定位入手,以气候变化和系统结构要素为分析框架,建立了包括敏感性、暴露性和适应性等三类指标要素和本底脆弱性、潜在脆弱性和现实脆弱性等三个评价层次的区域脆弱性评价系统,并以南方丘陵地区为例,针对泥石流、滑坡、干旱与洪涝等区域自然灾害,构建了水土流失敏感区的人地耦合系统脆弱性评价指标体系。作者认为,区域人地耦合系统脆弱性主要是针对全球气候变化扰动下与自然灾害有关的脆弱性,敏感性与易损性是其脆弱性的本质属性,敏感性、暴露性和适应性是脆弱性的系统要素。自然灾害频率指标可以作为反映灾害空间集聚性的区位暴露性指标,现实灾害度可以提供脆弱性评价因子厘定、指标权重确定、模型建立与阈值分析的结果验证。

Regional coupled human-natural systems vulnerability and its evaluation indexes

Unclear concept and scale positioning as well as imperfect evaluation system are the main obstacles of vulnerability evaluation.Starting from the concept,factor and scale of the coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,this article made it clear that the evaluation objective is in regional scale and the analysis framework is composed by climate change and system structural elements.Based on expounding the features of the coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,the authors established firstly an evaluation system of the coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,including the three series factor indexes of sensitivity, exposure and the adaptability,and three evaluation levels of background vulnerability, potential vulnerability and realistic vulnerability according to system relations of the three series factor indexes.Secondly,taking the hilly areas in southern China as an example,the authors established an evaluation index system of coupled human-environment interaction systems vulnerability in the erosion-prone region,which includes regional natural disasters such as debris flow,landslide,drought and flood,and which relies on the principles including the scientific principle,dominant factors principle,pertinence principle,applied principle and operability principle.Finally,the authors concluded that:(1)the regional coupled human-environment interaction systems vulnerability concerns with natural disasters under global climate change disturbance;(2)the sensitivity and damageability are the essential attribute of the vulnerability,while the sensitivity,exposure and adaptability are system factors of the vulnerability;(3)the natural disaster frequency can be seen as the location exposure indexes to reflect the space concentricity of disaster occurences,while the real disaster degree,as a reference value,can be provided to verify the results of the vulnerability evaluation indexes screening,index weights determinating,model validation and threshold value analysis.The research has some references for improving the theory and method of the research on regional coupled human-environment interaction systems vulnerability in different regions under the consistent framework.