环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系

利用环渤海地区分县社会经济数据和土地利用数据, 采用神经网络确定权重的方法, 对该区分县农村空心化程度和耕地利用集约度进行综合测评, 并以山东省为例, 进行两者耦合规律探索。结果表明:① 环渤海地区农村空心化区域差异明显。高度空心化且进入稳定期的地区主要集中在“C”型沿海地区;平原传统农区, 农村空心化正处空心化的成长、兴盛期;农村空心化低值区主要集中落后山区。② 耕地利用集约度时空差异明显。辽中平原粮食主产区、冀中南粮食主产区、鲁西鲁南粮食主产区集约度较高;低集约度主要集中在太行山区、长白山区、沂蒙山区、坝上高原等落后地区。③ 农村空心化与耕地利用集约度变化存在着耦合联动关系。空心化出现、成长期, 农村劳动力向城镇转移, 农村地区隐性失业问题得以解决, 耕地利用集约度不断提升;农村空心化发展至兴盛期, 农村地域发展面临主体弱化, 耕地利用集约度有所下降;至空心化稳定期, 健全的土地流转机制和农业现代化的持续推进, 耕地利用集约度将反弹上升, 最终趋于波动稳定。

Spatial-temporal characteristics for rural hollowing and cultivated land use intensive degree: Taking the Circum-Bohai Sea region in China as an example

The rural hollowing degree and cultivated land use intensive degree were calculated by the neural network method using social-economic and land use data. Meanwhile, taking Shandong Province as a case, the relationship between rural hollowing and cultivated land use intensive degree was analyzed. The results showed: (1) The regional differences of rural hollowing were significant in the Circum-Bohai Sea region in China. The high hollowing and stable areas mainly were located in the "C" shape coastal areas. The rural hollowing was in the growing and prosperous period, while the low rural hollowing was mainly located in the backward mountainous areas. At the same time, the spatial differences of the intensive degree for cultivated land use were obvious. The high degree regions were located in the major grain producing areas, including the Liaohe River Plain in Liaoning Province, Haihe River Plain in Hebei Province and southwest of Shandong Province. On the contrary, the low degree regions were mainly concentrated in backward and mountainous areas including Taihang in Liaoning Province and Yimeng Mountainous areas in Shangdong Province, Bashang Plateau in Hebei Province. The cultivated land use intensive degree was felled in the southwest of Shandong Province, the north of Hebei Province and the central region of Liaohe Plain. (2) The coupling relationship existed between rural hollowing and cultivated land use intensive degree. The rural labor elements were converged to cities and towns in the appear and growing period of rural hollowing development with the surplus rural labor force solved, so that the cultivated land use intensive degree was increased. With the rural hollowing prosperous, the old weakening problems got serious, so the cultivated land use intensive degree was declined. At the rural hollowing stable period, the cultivated land use intensive degree was rebounded, ultimately to be stable fluctuations with the land circulation mechanism and modern agricultural sustainable development. In the new period, urbanization, new rural construction and rural hollowing consolation are an organical integrity, filled development elements in the rural region, to realize agricultural modernization, and improve the cultivated land intensive use degree.