城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望

承载力研究范畴经历了非人类生物种群承载力、人口承载力、资源承载力、环境承载力、生态承载力、经济承载力、文化承载力、社会承载力等概念内涵的演进过程,呈现出从生物种群承载力扩展到“耕地-食物-人口”承载力、从单要素制约承载力发展到多要素制约的系统承载力、从单纯基于自然资源禀赋的承载力研究延伸到涵盖自然资源禀赋和人类发展需求的综合承载力、从单个城市承载力扩展到区域城市群综合承载力研究等演变特征。但另一方面,也不时发出“建议废弃承载力研究”的反对之声。本文指出:城市综合承载力不是一个伪命题,在一定时空条件及资源禀赋和环境容量约束下,城市承载力阈值是客观存在的。并就城市综合承载力的评价理念、限制性因素的辨识、评价方法、空间分类分级评价等学术问题展开讨论;提出并运用"状态指数"法来辨识城市综合承载力的主要限制性因素。最后,对未来的进一步深化研究进行了展望,旨在为相关研究提供启迪和参考。

Research progress and prospect on urban comprehensive carrying capacity

The research on carrying capacity has involved in an evolution process which includes many concepts such as non-human biological population carrying capacity, population carrying capacity, resources carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity, cultural carrying capacity and social carrying capacity. Four typical characteristics are emerging in the process, one is that the appraisal of carrying capacity was extended from biological population to "cultivated land-food-population" , the second is that the evaluation of carrying capacity restricted by single factor has changed to multiple factors, the third is that the appraisal of carrying capacity merely based on natural resources endowment has extended to depend on integrating natural resources endowment and human development requirements, and the fourth is that the estimation of carrying capacity was enlarged from single city to conurbation. This paper claimed that the urban comprehensive carrying capacity is not a meaningless question; its threshold limit value existed indeed in a particular temporal-spatial situation and under definite resources and environment constraints. Additionally, some issues such as the philosophy of evaluation for urban comprehensive carrying capacity, identification of the limiting factors, spatial classification appraisal and grading appraisal and evaluation methods were discussed. Also, the further study of urban carrying capacity is prospected.