基于能源消费的中国省级区域碳足迹时空演变分析

碳足迹作为衡量生产某一产品在其生命周期所直接或间接排放的CO₂量,其能够反应人类某项活动或某种产品对生态环境的压力程度。本文采用1997-2008年全国省级区域化石能源消费数据和土地利用结构数据,构建碳足迹计算模型,测算不同时间、不同区域的碳足迹、碳生态承载力和碳赤字,并引入物理学中重心的概念,测算1997-2008年全国各省级区域碳足迹的重心,进行碳足迹重心的时空演变趋势分析,掌握区域间能源消费碳排放的差异性;同时构建能源消费碳足迹压力指数模型,计算1997-2008年各省的碳足迹压力指数,对研究区域进行生态压力强度分级,并考察各省级区域碳足迹压力指数在两个相邻时间点之间的变化强度,进行生态压力变化强度的级别划分。

Spatiotemporal changes of carbon footprint based on energy consumption in China

Carbon footprint, as an important index to measure CO₂ and other greenhouse gases into the equivalence of CO₂ directly or indirectly emitted in the life cycle of production, can reflect the level of stress on the ecological environment of a human activity or a product. This article built a carbon footprint model to measure carbon footprint, ecological capacity of carbon and carbon deficit in different regions by using energy consumption and regional land use data from 1997 to 2008. Then the study, based on the conception of gravity derived from physics, estimated the provincial carbon footprint center of gravity from 1997 to 2008, analyzed the spatial and temporal variations and summarized the reasons for the center changes so as to understand the regional differences of carbon emissions of energy consumption. In addition, based on the index from 1997 to 2008 calculated through carbon footprint pressure index model, we divided China into five categories, namely the high degree of ecological carrying areas, the general degree of ecological carrying areas, the general transitional areas, the general degree of ecological pressure areas and the high degree of ecological pressure areas. At the same time, according to the change intensity of the carbon footprint pressure index between two time points of different areas, this article divided China into five levels, namely the ecological pressure relief areas, the ecological pressure slight increase areas, the ecological pressure moderate increase areas, the ecological pressure severe increase areas and the ecological pressure extreme increase areas.