国土空间规划:人口和城乡布局单幅总图的研制

研制人口与城乡布局是编制空间规划的必然要求和重点任务之一,旨在促进人口及城乡布局与资源环境承载能力相匹配,形成与“三区三线”相适应的人口和城乡布局,推进人口和城乡可持续发展。本研究提出一套“自上而下”与“自下而上”集成的人口与城乡布局研制方法。首先,总量控制,采用队列要素法、联合国法等完成基于行政区划单元的人口与城镇化水平预测;其次,因地制宜,以栅格为基本评价单元,实现城乡人口空间化,根据国土空间规划“三区三线”底图,核算现状超载和新增承载人口;最后,弹性集成人口与城镇化水平空间集疏态势以及地方国民经济发展诉求,划分人口增长地域类型、城镇增长类型、城镇规模等级等,完成人口与城乡布局。在此基础上,本研究以省级空间规划试点福建省为案例,将研制方法与研制实践相结合,实现福建省空间规划的人口与城乡布局总图绘制。以期为各尺度国土空间规划中的人口与城乡布局研制提供参考。

Research on a comprehensive map of layout of population and settlements planning in both urban and rural areas for territory spatial planning

In order to promote "Three Zones and Three Lines" layout (Three Zones represent ecological space, agricultural space, and urban space; Three Lines represent ecological conservation redline, permanent capital farmland, and urban development boundary) in the territory spatial planning system, it is important to develop the methods of population and settlements planning in both urban and rural areas. This paper aims to put forward a series of methods, which focus on not only the top-down planning but also the bottom-up planning. First, the total population and the urbanization level in the macro scale should be controlled. Using the classic estimation methods in the field of demography, including cohort-component method and the United Nations urbanization projection method, the population and urbanization level based on the administrative units can be figured out. Second, the population size should be adapted to local environment conditions. According to the method of demographic data spatialization, the urban and rural population by the grid format can be estimated. Furthermore, the overload population and the additional population can be calculated based on the population raster data and the layout of "Three Zones and Three Lines". Third, the elastic integration is necessary. The integration considers not only spatial-temporal changes of population and urbanization but also the requests of local governments and residents. The layouts of population and settlements in both urban and rural areas include the regional types of population development and the hierarchical structure of the city system. We further applied our method into the provincial-scale spatial planning in Fujian. We do hope that this paper could be beneficial for the related population and urban-rural spatial planning in other regions or other geographic scales.