区域历史人口空间格局精细化重建:方法与实证

以清中期（1736~1820年）苏州府为例,探索历史时期人口空间分布的影响机制,构建历史人口空间分布适宜性计算方法,在2个典型时段（1776年、1820年）重建1 km×1 km空间格网下的人口数据集。研究结果表明:① 在数量上,1776年,苏州府人口总量为511.1万,其中城市人口120.1万,农村人口391.0万;1820年,总人口为590.8万,其中城市168.7万,农村422.1万;城市人口增长速率明显快于农村人口。② 空间格局上,1776~1820年,苏州府中部的吴县、长洲、元和等县人口较为集中,东北部昭文、新阳及中南部吴江、震泽等县较为稀疏,但区域间差异渐趋缩小;人口增长主要集中在城镇区域,较高等级城镇人口集聚特征更为显著。③ 通过与当地历史文献及现代人口格局进行相关性和趋势检验,总体特征、分布趋势和变化特点具有一致性。

Refinement Reconstruction of the Spatial Pattern of Regional Historical Population: Method and Demonstration

The change of population size and spatial distribution is one of the main driving factors of global climate, eco-environment and land use / cover change (LUCC). And it is an important part of global change research. At present, the reconstruction results of China's historical population data mostly focus on the data recovery of the population of a certain administrative region or different-scale cities or the reconstruction of the pattern of population distribution within a certain region by using a simple spatial interpolation method, while the spatial pattern of the historical population which has the significance of historical population indication and with higher spatial resolution is still rare. Taking Suzhou Prefecture in the middle of Qing Dynasty as an example, this article explores the influence mechanism of population spatial distribution in historical period and constructs the method of calculating spatial distribution suitability of historical population in two typical periods (1776 and 1820), reconstruction of 1 km×1 km spatial grid population data set. The results show as follows: in quantity, the population of Suzhou Prefecture was 5.111×10 ⁶ in 1776, of which the urban population was 1.201×10 ⁶and the rural population was 3.91×10 ⁶; in 1820, the total population was 5.900×10 ⁶, including 1.687×10 ⁶ in urban areas and 4.221×10 ⁶ in rural areas. The urban population growth rate is significantly faster than the rural population. In the spatial pattern, from 1776 to 1820, the population of Wu, Changzhou and Yuanhe counties in the central part of Suzhou Prefecture was relatively concentrated; Zhaowen, Xinyang counties in the northeast and Wujiang, Zhongze counties in the south were relatively sparse. However, the regional differences have gradually narrowed. The population growth mainly concentrated in the urban areas, and the population agglomeration in the higher-level cities and towns was more pronounced. Through the correlation and trend test with the local historical documents and the modern population pattern, the overall characteristics, distribution trends and the characteristics of changes are consistent, which verifies the rationality of the reconstruction results.