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| Analysis of Sampling Error Uncertainties and Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in China简 | |
| 作者姓名： | HUA Wei Samuel SPSHEN and WANG Huijun |
| 基金项目： | supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103);the 973 Program (Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2012CB955401);the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant No. EL133E09SE4048);the US National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. AGS-1015926 and AGS-1015957) |
| 摘 要： | In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China. |
| 关 键 词： | 不确定性分析 抽样误差 气温分析 中国 三甲基铟 原始数据 误差方差 气象观测站 |
Analysis of sampling error uncertainties and trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in China |
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| HUA Wei,Samuel SPSHEN,and WANG Huijun.Analysis of sampling error uncertainties and trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2014,31(2):263-272. | |
| Authors: | Wei Hua Samuel S P Shen Huijun Wang |
| Institution: | 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China 3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China 4. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China 2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, 92182, USA |
| Abstract: | In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual scales, including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004. Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average, linear trends and their uncertainties, as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed. It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin, which are larger in winter than in summer, have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution, while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular. Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004, with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400C (10 yr)-1 0.269C (10 yr)-1 and 0.578C (10 yr)-1 0.211C (10 yr)-1 in February, and the least being 0.022C (10 yr)-1 0.085C (10 yr)-1 and 0.104C (10 yr)-1 0.070C (10 yr)-1 in August. Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China. |
| Keywords: | sampling error uncertainty maximum temperature minimum temperature temperature trend |
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