| 灰色系统理论在长期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李耀先,肇裕福.灰色系统理论在长期预报中的应用[J].气象学报,1987,45(4):489-494. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李耀先 肇裕福 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象台
(李耀先)，广西壮族自治区气象台(肇裕福) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色系统理论,分别建立了南宁市的秋季寒露风、冬季菠萝低温、春季烂秧天气结束期的时间序列的灰色动态(GM)长期预测模型,预测的效果较令人满意。其优点为:①可以减少时间序列的随机性;②可以提高预测精度。
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| 收稿时间： | 1985/9/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/6/1986 12:00:00 AM |
THE APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO LONG-RANGE PREDICTION |
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| Li Yaoxian and Zhao Yufu.THE APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO LONG-RANGE PREDICTION[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1987,45(4):489-494. |
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| Authors: | Li Yaoxian and Zhao Yufu |
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| Institution: | Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Observatory;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Observatory |
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| Abstract: | Applying the grey system theory,a grey system (GM) model for long-range forecasts is established in this paper.With this model,autumn low temperature adverse to rice and the winter coldness adverse to pineapple and the end spring cold and raing weather leading to seedling rice rotting have been forecasl for Nanning,Guangxi,fairly satisfactory results. |
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