Cyclone track prediction using INSAT data

INSAT visible and infrared imageries of three cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the period 1984–1987 were analysed with a view to improve the cyclone track prediction in this region. It was observed that the rotation in the major structural cloud features (as seen from the cloud-top temperature maps) associated with these cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is followed with a change in direction of their movement. This method is seen to be particularly effective when the cyclone is severe and when the major cloud features persist for a reasonably longer time. In the present study, only the direction of movement is forecast assuming a uniform speed of the cyclone.