The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts |
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Authors: | CHEN Boyu and MU Mu |
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Institution: | National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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Abstract: | In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs), TC Longwang (2005) and
TC Sinlaku (2008), to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically,
three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear
optimal perturbation (CNOP), first singular vector (FSV), and composite singular vector (CSV) methods. Additionally, random
initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed
and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments
of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. |
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Keywords: | sensitive area conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation CNOP uncertainty of initial conditions nonlinear development |
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