常熟市可持续农业与农村发展系统评价及其规划

杏持续农业与农村发展（ＳＡＲＤ）是发达国家与发展中国家面临的共同问题，而不同地区ＳＡＲＤ所处的阶段不同，发展模式也各具特色。科学地确定其发展偏离度并为其未来发展作出合理的规划，具有重要的理论与实践意义。文章构建了ＳＡＲＤ多目标规划模型，运用它对常熟市过去８年进行了系统评价，并对未来发展进行了动态规划，得出了３个不同的投入方案。

The Systematic Appraisal and Planning of Changshu SARD

Both developed and developing countries face to sustainable agriculture and rural development(SARD). The stage of SARD in different areas is different, and their developing pattern is various. It is mean-ingful both in theories and practices to scientifically appraise the deviation of SARD and to reasonably draw upplans for regional development. In this paper, based on the designed appraisal thinking, a multi-objective plan-ning model is designed, which is We do our researches by taking Changshu City as an example. Firstly, we establish an indicator system ofChangshu SARD, which includes 28 input and 30 output indicators. In establishing the indicator system, we actupon the basic thoughts of SARD that sustainable agriculture and rural development is synthetic outputs of vari-ous inputs containing resources, environment, manpower and economic factors. That is to say, not only directeconomic inputs, but the use of resources and the burden of environment are regarded as input factors; mean-while, the outputs not only contain economic and social factors, but contain the factors of environmental quality.And based on the framework of this indicator system, we establish a database of sustainable agriculture and ruraldevelopment of Changshu (CSSARD) and an auxiliary database (ACSSARD), and standardize them through ef-ficacy function. Then using the model mentioned above, we appraise the results of sustainable agriculture andrural development in Changshu from 1990 to 1997. It is shown that the degree of the developing deviation to thebest possibility in the 8 years is respectively 0.25, 0.28, 0.10, 0.17, 0.12, 0.08, 0.17, 0.19. That is tosay, the developing situation in 1995 is the most satisfied, while that in 1991 is the most unsatisfied. In the endof the paper, through dynamic simulation on computer, we get three different input plans: (1) laying emphasison technology and economics, which stresses "high benefits"; (2) laying emphasis on operation of manpower re-sources, which stresses "intensification"; and (3) synthetic balancing plan, which is designed by comprehensiv-ely adhering to the connotation of model of high benefits, intensification and sustainability. As an example, theconcrete planning data in 2000 is given in the paper.