干旱区水土资源时空变化的定量研究

水资源是制约干旱区土地资源开发利用的主要自然因素，水、土资源利用在时间和空间上平衡与否的矛盾影响着干旱区生态环境与社会发展。用定量化的数学模型表示二者的互相影响，能描述、解释和预测二者关系并能为制定对策提供依据。本文首先分析了干旱区土地利用与水资源的相互影响，然后对水土资源相互影响下时空变化的模拟方法和理论进行了综述。一方面从蒸散的计算、模拟地下水补给、模拟区域尺度上土地利用影响、模拟土地管理措施影响、模拟抽取地下水影响、以系统方法模拟土地利用影响等几方面对土地利用影响下水资源的时空变化模拟进行了综述。同时对水资源影响下土地利用变化的模拟从主要考虑水文作用的水文－植被模型的建立应用及引入人为因素为驱动力的土地利用变化模拟两方面做了综述。文章最后进一步概括了干旱区水土资源时空变化模拟的趋势并就此方面的研究提出了三点展望意见。

QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH ON THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHANGE OF WATER AND LAND RESOURCES

Water resources is the main natural factor restricting the exploitation and utilization of land resources in the arid areas. The temporal and spatial budget of water and land resources affects the ecological environment and the social development in the arid areas. The relations between water and land resources can be described and explained by expressing their interaction with a quantitative mathematical model, and a basis can also be provided for making decision. This paper analyzes the interaction between the land use and the available water resources in the arid areas, discusses synthetically the simulating methods and theory under the temporal and spatial change of the interaction between water and land resources. The simulations of the temporal and spatial change of water resources under the influence of land use are summarized from the aspects of calculation of evapotranspiration, simulation of groundwater feeding, impact of land use in the simulated regions, simulation of the effects of land management measures, simulation of the impacts of groundwater extraction, systematical simulation of land use, etc. The change of land use under the effects of water resources is summed up based on considering the development and the application of hydrology vegetation models and on introducing the artificial factors as the forcing factors of the models of land use change. The tendency of the simulation on the temporal and spatial change of water and land resources in the arid areas is also discussed, and three prospects about these studies are put forward.