土地利用动态变化的空间测算模型研究

本文以GIS叠置分析为辅助手段，将研究区域(广州市海珠区)的土地细分出未变化部分、转移部分和新增部分等三种空间类型，并据此对现有测算土地利用变化速率的数量分析和动态度模型进行了评析，提出了修正后的空间信息测算分析模型，旨在更为精细和准确地测算各土地利用类型的动态变化程度。或者更具体地说这种模型最主要是从微观角度的空间区位上认识不同用地类型变化的面积和速度(增加或减少)的情况，并且要清楚知道变化的用地在空间的分布和时空规律。结合社会经济情况来探讨这种情况发生的原因及其可能产生的结果。该研究对沿海发达地区未来城市土地利用的合理规划有一定的借鉴意义。

Spatial Calculating Analysis Model Research of Land- use Change

The spatial calculating analysis model is based on GIS overlay. It will compartmentalize the research district land into three spatial parts: unchanged part, transferring part and increasing part. By the method we can evaluate the numerical model and dynamic degree model for existing calculating changed speed of land-use. Furthermore the paper raises calculating analysis model of spatial information being revised in order to predicate the dynamic changing level of all types of land. Or in the most concrete the model mainly is to know changed area and changed speed (increasing or decreasing) of different land classification from microcosmic angle and clearly to know spatial distribution and spatio-temporal law for changing urban lands. And we will try to find out why the situation can take place by combining social and economic situations. The result indicates: calculating analysis model of spatial information can derive more accurate procedure of spatial transference and increase of all kinds of urban land from microcosmic angle. By this model and technology we can make the research of spatio-temporal structure evolution in land-use more systematical and deeper and have a satisfactory result. The result will benefit the planning management of urban land-use of developed districts in China in the future.