中国能源安全评价及时空演进特征

采用近20年能源经济数据,从能源供应稳定性与使用安全性两个方面构建中国能源安 全评价模型,借助因子分析、ArcGIS空间分析技术、情景分析方法,对中国能源安全时空演 进特征展开研究。结果表明： ① 近20年来,中国能源安全呈一小一大倒“U”型变化趋势, 且目前处于大倒“U”型下降阶段； ② 3种情景下,区域能源安全时空演进存在明显差异。情 景一：区域能源供应稳定形势显著改善,能源供应脆弱区在空间上向“S”型演进,能源供应 稳定区在空间上向“Y”型演进；情景二：能源使用安全形势迅速恶化,使用安全与供应稳定 性在空间上呈倒置状态；情景三：从2008年中国区域能源安全格局来看,中国区域能源安全 区 (次强与强区) 主要分布在黄河中游、西北、西南和东北地区,而能源安全脆弱区 (次弱和 弱区) 则主要分布在沿海地区。

Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Energy Security in China

Based on the energy and economy data from 1990 to 2008, this paper develops a model to evaluate China's energy security from both supply and demand perspectives and analyze its spatial-temporal evolution by using factor analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and scenario analysis. The results are as follows: 1) National energy security of China shows first a small and then a large inverted "U"-shaped trend during the past 20 years, and is currently at the downward stage of the pattern. 2) The three scenarios for spatial-temporal evolution of regional energy security demonstrate significant differences. Scenario 1 considers only the stability of regional energy supply (α = 1;β = 0). The consequent regional energy security has improved significantly. The evolution of vulnerable regions of energy supply shows an "S” -shaped pattern, and stable regions shows a "Y"-shaped trend. Scenario 2 considers only the security of energy use (α = 0;β = 1). The consequent regional energy security has deteriorated rapidly. The security of regional energy supply and use are roughly in an inverted state. Scenario 3 prioritizes stability of energy supply than security of energy use (α = 0.9;β = 0.1). The consequent spatial distribution pattern of energy security reveals that regional energy security zones of China (sub-strong and strong area) are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, northwestern, southwestern and northeastern parts of China, while vulnerability zones (sub-weak and weak areas) are mainly located in coastal areas.