长春市商业用地基准地价演变过程及驱动因子分析

基准地价作为中国城市地价体系的重要组成部分,是政府法定的公示地价之一,也是目前中国地价评估的基础。城市基准地价的动态变化过程中,基准地价价格水平的提升和基准地价空间格局的变化是城市经济发展、城市规划建设共同作用的综合结果。论文以长春市商业用地基准地价为例,探索城市基准地价演变的规律。首先计算长春市1995年至2010年商业用地不同级别的地价环比结构的特征值,分析长春市商业用地基准地价的价格动态变化特征;然后利用ESDA分析工具,通过2006年和2010年长春市商业区段路线价的空间格局变化分析来概括讨论长春市商业用地基准地价的空间格局变化;最后结合数学模型分析确定长春市商业用地基准地价演变的驱动因子,最终归纳总结了基准地价演变的规律,即经济发展推动机制、供求机制和规划引导机制共同推进和制约了基准地价的价格和空间格局的演变。

The Evolution Process and Driving Factors of Standard Land Price of Commercial Land in Changchun City,China

As a momentous part of the urban land price system of China,standard land price (SLP) is one of the statutory public land price of the Chinese government, and it is also the foundation of land price evaluation in China.SLP is the instructive price for the urban land market.On the one hand, SLP reflects the premium level objectively, on the other hand, it is a basic way to government administration and control urban land market, and it is the basis of the appearance of land assets price and calculation of land assets income.In a process of dynamic change of urban SLP, the rise and spatial change of SLP result from comprehensive effects of economic development and city planning construction.Through calculations, the paper takes the SLP of Changchun City as an example to interpret the rule of evolution process.The thesis has first analyzed the dynamic change feature of commercial standard land price by calculation Chain index’eigenvalue in each price level of commercial SLP in Changchun City in 1994-2010.Using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA), the paper analyses the street price of commercial land in Changchun City in 2006 and 2010.After the analysis of the basic database structure and trend, the author chooses Kriging method to make interpolating and SLP prediction.The digital model of street price of commercial land in Changchun City in 2006 and 2010 is established based on the basic database of street price of commercial land in Changchun City in 2006 and 2010.According to the above data analysis, the article discusses the spatial pattern change of commercial standard land in Changchun City.The author selects 18 factors of urban SLP in Changchun City according to the actual situation of Changchun City, and using analysis of mathematical model of the principal components analysis.The work fixes the driving factors of commercial SLP of Changchun City.Finally, it gets the disciplines of SLP evolution process.The paper arrives the conclusion that promotion mechanism of economic development, land demand and supply mechanism, planning and guidance mechanism jointly impel and restrict the price and spatial pattern evolution of SLP.The health development of urban economy can obviously promote and improve SLP.And land demand and supply mechanism can drive SLP and restrict SLP spatial pattern.SLP level and the developmental trend are affected by city planning.