中国非农化与城市化关系的省际差异

根据2000年中国第5次人口普查和统计年鉴的分地区数据,比较了全国及各地区普查及统计口径的非农化水平的准确性与可信度,认为宜采用普查数据来分析比较各地区非农化与城市化的关系。中国各地区的非农化与城市化关系呈现出多样化的类型和极为悬殊的差异,不宜实行全国统一的城市化政策,而应该分类指导、因地制宜地推进各地区的城市化进程。一方面,改革开放以来,中国绝大部分省区的城市化发展快于非农化进程,导致城市化滞后的省区逐渐减少,非农化滞后的省区在较快增长;另一方面,中国各地区的城市化发展呈现出较显著的“马太效应”。在长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、福建和北京等地区,城市化的现状水平高、发展速度快,但仍相对滞后于非农化;在大部分中西部地区和广西、山东等部分沿海地区,城市化的现状水平较低、增长速度较慢,但却相对超前于非农化。

Provincial Disparities of the Relationship between Industrialization and Urbanization

Based on the 5th census data and the China's Statistical Yearbook 2000, the accuracy and reliability of the industrialization levels at the national and provincial levels respectively calculated from the census and statistical data are firstly compared and checked. While analyzing the relationship between industrialization and urbanization at the national and provincial levels in China, this paper finds that it is applicable to use the census data rather than the statistical data to calculate the industrialization level although the industrialization levels calculated from the two types of data sources are both inaccurate. Secondly, the provincial disparities of the relationship between industrialization and urbanization in 1982-2000 are explored in detail, based on the 3rd, 4th and 5th census data in China. Four characteristics have been summarized: (1) The relationships between industrialization and urbanization at provincial level in China are of various types with great differences. Thus, an identical urbanization policy nationwide is inapplicable in China. (2) After the reform and opening up policy was launched in the 1980s, the growth rate of urbanization level greatly exceeds that of industrialization level in most provinces of China, which results in a sharp decrease in the number of provinces with urbanization lagged behind and a rapid increase in the number of provinces with industrialization lagged behind. (3) In those provinces with rather high urbanization level and rapid growth rate, such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong and Beijing, their urbanization levels are still lower than their respective industrialization levels; while in those provinces with rather lower urbanization level and slow growth rate, such as Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Qinghai, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Hainan etc., their urbanization levels are, however, higher than their respective industrialization levels. (4) The provincial disparities of the relationship between industrialization and urbanization in China are primarily caused by various growth rates of industrialization among provinces, in particular the sluggish growth of industrialization in the central and western regions.