| 基于多模式短期集合预报技术的热带气旋降水预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张亚洲,李盛林,邓文彬,梅华.基于多模式短期集合预报技术的热带气旋降水预报试验[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(2):26-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张亚洲 李盛林 邓文彬 梅华 |
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| 作者单位： | 解放军61936部队,海南,海口,571100 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中尺度AREM和WRF模式为试验模式,由对降水预报结果影响颇大的积云和边界层参数化方案构成的10个集合预报成员,开展有限区域多模式短期集合预报在热带气旋降水预报中的应用与研究.分别研究了单个模式集合预报和多模式集合预报在热带气旋"天鹅"(0907)降水预报中的应用.试验结果表明:(1) WRF模式集合预报效果整体上...
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| 关 键 词： | 数值模拟 集合预报 多模式 热带气旋降水 |
EXPERIMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BASED ON MULTI-MODEL SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING TECHNIQUE |
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| Zhang Yazhou,Li Shenglin,Deng Wenbin,Mei Hua.EXPERIMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BASED ON MULTI-MODEL SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING TECHNIQUE[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2011,34(2):26-33. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yazhou Li Shenglin Deng Wenbin Mei Hua |
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| Institution: | Zhang Yazhou,Li Shenglin,Deng Wenbin,Mei Hua NO.61936 Troop of PLA,Haikou 571100,China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the 10 ensemble forecast members of different cumulus parameterization and PBL scheme in AREM and WRF models are used to improve the application and research of multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting in tropical cyclone precipitation.The single model and multi-model ensemble forecasting are respectively applied to study the precipitation of KONI(0907).The results indicate:(1) On the whole,the effect of WRF model ensemble forecasting is better than that of AREM model,and the multi-model e... |
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| Keywords: | Numerical simulation Ensemble prediction Multi-model ensemble Tropical cyclone precipitation |
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