基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析——以新疆伊宁县为例(英文)

如何协调干旱区生态环境保护与绿洲农业生态化发展之间的关系,避免绿洲系统的荒漠化,是实现绿洲人地系统可持续发展过程中亟待解决的关键问题。本文以伊宁县为例,利用能值分析和相图理论,深入分析了温带干旱区绿洲农业生产系统的时序演化状况与发展趋势,进而提出了相应的调控措施。研究结论如下:(1)1989–2008年,伊宁县绿洲农业生态系统的能值总投入和总产出均呈持续增长趋势。(2)基于能值指标的可持续性分析表明,目前伊宁县农业生产系统仍处于可持续发展的状态,但可持续发展指数ESI呈现出波动下降的趋势;(3)基于相图理论的可持续线情景分析表明,F导向模式和N导向模式均有其局限性,在伊宁县农业生产系统今后的发展中,应采取R导向模式。即保持系统中当地不可更新资源利用比率的基本稳定,使得经济反馈能值的使用比率和本地不可更新资源的使用比率同步减少,籍此提高当地可更新资源对农产品生产的贡献率,保证系统的可持续发展。

Emergy Based Sustainability Scenario Analysis of Oasis Agricultural Systems: A Case Study from Xinjiang,China

How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the temporal characteristics and overall tendency of an arid oasis agricultural production system in Yining County, China by means of emergy methods and ternary diagrams theory. From 1989–2008, total emergy input and output of the oasis agricultural system in Yining County had a trend of sustainable development. According to the sustainability analysis with emergy indices, the agricultural production systems in Yining County were still at a sustainable status. However, the emergy-based sustainability index （ESI） followed a decreasing trend. Scenario analysis of the sustainability lines based on ternary diagrams showed that both the F （input from economic component） and N （input from nonrenewable resource） leading modes had limitations in the study case. The agricultural production of Yining County should adopt the R leading mode, in which the percentage of non-renewable resources in the local system will be kept roughly unchanged, while the fraction of purchased inputs and renewable resources will be decreased in synchronism. In this way, the contribution from local renewable resources to agricultural production will be increased, and sustainable development ensured.