Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M _w = 7.4) and Düzce (M _w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami.