A review on stochastic differential equations for applications in hydrology

Fundamentals of the theory of stochastic calculus and stochastic differential equations (SDE's) which are finding increasing application in water resources engineering are reviewed. The basics of probability theory, mean square calculus and the Wiener, white Gaussian and compound Poisson processes are given in preparation for a discussion of the general Itô SDE with drift, diffusion and jump discontinuity terms driven by Gaussian white noise and compound Poissionian impulses. Also discussed are stochastic integration and the derivation of moment equations via the Itô differential rule. The lierature of SDE's is reviewed with an emphasis on the more accessible sources.     

黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析

采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Ya-mamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。     

Jump conditions and dynamic surface tension at permeable interfaces such as the inner core boundary

We consider a fluid crossing a zone of rapid density change, so thin that it can be considered as a density jump interface. In this case, the normal velocity undergoes a jump. For a Newtonian viscous fluid with low Reynolds number (creeping flow) that keeps its rheological properties within the interface, we show that this implies that the traction cannot be continuous across the density jump because the tangential stress is singular. The appropriate jump conditions are established by using the calculus of distributions, taking into account the curvature of the interface as well as the density and viscosity changes. Independently of any intrinsic surface tension, a dynamic surface tension appears and turns out to be proportional to the mass transfer across the interface and to a coefficient related to the variations of density and viscosity within the interface. Explicit solutions are exhibited to illustrate the importance of these new jump conditions. The example of the Earth's inner core crystallisation is questioned.     

地窝堡机场东南大风特征及其大气结构

按照民航系统气象行业标准要求,结合乌鲁木齐国际机场的具体情况,给出乌鲁木齐机场东南大风的定义,并应用乌鲁木齐机场1978~2012年间逐时观测的风速风向对机场东南大风的特征进行分析,然后再引入水跃理论和Froude数,对机场东南大风发生时的大气结构做解析。结果表明:(1)1980年代与2000年代至今,为东南大风的兴盛期,1990年代为东南大风的低值期;(2)东南大风主要集中出现在春秋季,其中尤以4月出现次数最多,占总出现次数的36.4%;(3)早晨至中午期间,东南大风多发且风速较大;午后至夜间,东南大风发生次数少,且风速也相对较小;(4)东南大风的持续时间以低于5 h为主,其次为持续11 h以上的大风,而持续时间在5~11 h之间的大风出现最少;(5)对于4月和11月而言,大风发生时达坂城与本场的气压差与同时次本场的温度垂直递减率存在显著的线性关系。     

波动性生态脆弱带的特征

波动性生态脆弱带是生态脆弱带的基本类型之一,跃变性是波动性的实质,降水的高变率与人类活动的保守性、稳定性的尖锐矛盾是形成脆弱的主要原因。牧草、粮食的放大性是对降水波动性的进一步体现,波动性是对农林牧土地利用结构,经济水平,人口超载状况的综合反映,是度量脆弱度的实用指标之一。     

中国蛤蜊Mactra chinensis Philippi稚贝运动行为学初步研究

为从行为学角度解释中国蛤蜊(Mactra chinensis Philippi)的跑滩现象, 研究了规格、温度对其跳跃行为以及底质、流速和周期性干露对其潜沙行为的影响。结果表明, 中国蛤蜊运动能力与其规格和水温有关, 3 mm稚贝不具备跳跃能力, 5 mm以上具备跳跃能力; 跳跃频率和高度随水温的升高呈上升趋势。中国蛤蜊稚贝潜沙比例均随时间推移逐渐上升; 各时间节点中国蛤蜊稚贝在细沙底质的潜沙比例最高, 中沙底质次之, 粗沙底质最低。施加微弱水流后, 中国蛤蜊稚贝潜沙速度和比例显著增加; 流速增大到一定程度后部分稚贝被水流冲走, 潜沙比例随之下降。周期性干露会导致中国蛤蜊稚贝从底质中爬出, 干露时间越长, 爬出比例越高。干露后的稚贝重新放置于海水中, 部分稚贝会在水面漂浮一段时间后再下落至水底, 漂浮比例随干露时间的增加而增加。本研究从行为学角度初步查明了中国蛤蜊跑滩现象, 为解决中国蛤蜊防跑滩问题提供了思路。     

The NPO/ NAO and interdecadal climate variation in China

This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8-15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO.     

红外遥感用于地震预测及其物理机理研究

在等温过程加载的条件下,实验得出岩石的红外辐射能量随压力变化显著变化的结果。这个变化与温度无关,完全由压力引起,这就证明了机械能能直接激发岩石分子振动态能级之间的跃迁,不需要经夺石生预测地震奠定了理论基础,这一物理现象的发现,为用红外遥感观测地球表层应力场分布和预测地震奠定了理论基础,提供了实验依据。提出了由温度异常引起的红外辐射能量变化和由应力起的红外辐射能量变化以及将两者分离出发的理论与方法,     

Stochastic particle based models for suspended particle movement in surface flows

Modeling of suspended sediment particle movement in surface water can be achieved by stochastic particle tracking model approaches.In this paper,different mathematical forms of particle tracking models are introduced to describe particle movement under various flow conditions,i.e.,the stochastic diffusion process,stochastic jump process,and stochastic jump diffusion process.While the stochastic diffusion process can be used to represent the stochastic movement of suspended particles in turbulent flows,the stochastic jump and the stochastic jump diffusion processes can be used to describe suspended particle movement in the occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows.An extreme flow herein is defined as a hydrologic flow event or a hydrodynamic flow phenomenon with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact on its ambient flow environment.In this paper,the suspended sediment particle is assumed to immediately follow the extreme flows in the jump process（i.e.the time lag between the flow particle and the sediment particle in extreme flows is considered negligible）.In the proposed particle tracking models,a random term mainly caused by fluid eddy motions is modeled as a Wiener process,while the random occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows can be modeled as a Poisson process.The frequency of occurrence of the extreme flows in the proposed particle tracking model can be explicitly accounted for by the Poisson process when evaluating particle movement.The ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be obtained from the proposed stochastic models via simulations.The ensemble mean and variance of particle velocity are verified with available data.Applicability of the proposed stochastic particle tracking models for sediment transport modeling is also discussed.     

1976年7月唐山7．8级地震的震前地温突升异常

通过对唐山地震气象背景分析,揭示了唐山和昌黎两个测站的80cm地温日变率在震前4天分别突升1．1℃和1．2℃。对这种异常现象进行了天气气候分析,震中区与外围站对比分析以及滤波分析等,并论证为是来自地下深处影响所致。还对震前地温突升成因给与一定的解释。