Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular numerical tool (Eco3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling

A new class of phytoplankton models with a mechanistic basis has been presented in a companion paper (Baklouti, M., Diaz, F., Pinazo, C., Faure, V., Queguiner, B., 2006. Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography). It is the default class of models implemented in our new numerical tool Eco3M, which is dedicated to Ecological, Mechanistic and Modular Modelling. A brief overview of its main features is given in Section 2 of the present paper. In the next sections, a particular phytoplankton model among the aforementioned class has been tested with special emphasis on the mechanistic photosynthesis component relating the photosynthetic rate to the proportion of open photosystems II. The present study encompasses several essential steps that are inherent to any modelling, including model reduction, model sensitivity analysis and comparison of model outputs with experiments. The global sensitivity analysis of the plankton model for one-at-a-time parameter perturbations revealed a restricted set of parameters having major influence on the model outputs. Sensitivity tests involving simultaneous parameter perturbations within the range actually encountered in the literature provided a confidence interval for the outputs. Chemostat experiments performed on nitrate-limited diatoms grown under low (LL) and high-light (HL) conditions have been used for comparison with model outputs. The good fit between measured data and model outputs using the same parameter values in both the LL and HL cases demonstrates the ability of our model to represent the main features of phytoplankton dynamics including photoacclimation. Finally, Eco3M is ultimately intended to include explicit bacterial and zooplankton compartments, as well as to be coupled with ocean circulation models, but the intrinsic behavior of the phytoplankton model has been investigated first, independently of physical forcing.     

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

基于灵敏度分析的结构损伤识别中的传感器优化配置

本文提出了结构损伤识别中的传感器测点优化配置的方法。该方法是通过仅考虑结构刚度变化的结构特征灵敏度分析，以结构各自由度的损伤信息为条件，计算出结构的Fisher信息阵，并且考虑到Fisher信息阵的逆阵可能不存在，而将Fisher信息阵对应于每个自由度进行分解，通过计算每个分解的Fisher信息阵的迹而确定每个自由度含有的损伤信息的多少，从而从结构的全部自由度中去掉那些含损伤信息少的自由度。建立直接利用结构不完整的实测模态来定位结构的损伤，避免结构模态扩阶带来不必要的误差。最后，通过数值算例表明，该方法能有效地识别出结构的损伤。     

多相流动电磁波成像测井测量敏感场计算

在多相流动电磁波成像测井研究中，测量敏感场是设计测量仪器和研究图像重建算法的前提工作. 本文用数值方法计算多相流动电磁波成像测井测量敏感场. 根据测量探头电极阵列的对称性，将三维敏感场问题划分为轴向和横向两个平面问题，然后应用有限元算法求解两个平面电势分布问题，对于不同介质模型，计算各种测量条件下测量区域内电势分布，进而根据电势分布计算测量敏感场. 结果表明测量敏感区域为发射电极到测量电极的弧形区域，在发射电极到测量电极的电势梯度线上，测量敏感函数近似于一个指数函数.     

An analysis of storm-induced landslides in colluvial soils overlying mudrock sequences, southeastern Ohio, USA

In late-June, 1998, a series of thunderstorms dropped 16.5 cm (6.5 in.) of rain in a 72-h period over southeastern Ohio, causing extensive flooding, six deaths, and 179 million dollars in property damage. The storms also triggered more than 60 shallow landslides along a 64 km (40-mi) stretch of Interstate 77 between Buffalo and Marietta, Ohio. Almost all of the landslides were translational, occurring along the contact between colluvial soils and the underlying bedrock (shales, claystones, mudstones). Six sites were selected in the affected area for a detailed study of the shallow landslides. At each site, a record was made of the stratigraphy, slope geometry, number of landslides, landslide dimensions, hydrologic conditions, and influence of vegetation on landslide distribution. Both colluvial soils and underlying bedrock were sampled for laboratory investigations, which included determination of natural water content, grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, permeability, slake durability, and shear-strength parameters. Data from laboratory tests were used to perform sensitivity and stability analyses with respect to varying slope angles, strength parameters, and thicknesses of saturated colluvial soil. The results of the study indicate that the shallow landslides along Interstate 77 occurred when the colluvial soils reached 90% to 100% saturation, depending upon the slope angles.     

Analysis of the environmental sensitivities of a typical dynamic epikarst system at the Nongla monitoring site, Guangxi, China

Nongla, a typical karst dynamic system (KDS) monitoring site, is located at Nongla Village, Mashan County, Guangxi, China. The data from a Greenspan CTDP300 multichannel data logger indicates that the KDS is highly sensitive to environmental changes. Multi-day and diurnal physico-chemical composition of epikarst spring water is quite different under different climatic conditions. During a day with no rainfall, water temperature and air temperature have similar variations. Electrical conductivity (EC) has good positive correlation with pH value and water temperature. During rainstorms, the physico-chemical composition of the spring water is initially strongly effected by dilution, pH and EC drop rapidly. However, half to one hour later, EC returns to normal and the CO₂ effects will be the dominant physical effect. This is due to the high fissure rates and high permeability in the epikarst zone. Dilution effects were observed during the entire rainstorm event,whereas, it only acts during the earliest period of light rain. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the water–rock–CO₂ combination as a whole system to explain the hydrochemical behavior of epikarst processes.     

基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析

以CMIP5提供的26个全球气候系统模式的温度和降水数据为基础,采用区域气候变化指数(Regional Climate Change Index,RCCI)分析中国的不同区域对21世纪气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明,三种排放情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)下,21世纪全期,气候变化最敏感的区域分布在西藏地区,其次为我国西北地区以及东北地区,气候变化敏感性最低的区域分布在我国内蒙古中东部、华北地区以及长江中下游一带,且高排放情景对应更高的气候变化敏感性。对RCCI指数贡献因子分析结果表明,对中国气候变化敏感性贡献的大小依次为Δσ_TΔσ_pΔRRWAF。冬夏两季温度变化的大值区与RCCI指数的大致区分布一致,RCCI大小的分布很大程度上由温度变化的敏感性决定。而夏季降水变化的大值区主要出现在西藏地区、华南地区和东北地区,冬季降水变化的大值区则主要出现在黄河以南长江以北的中原地区以及东北地区。     

Multi-factor sensitivity analysis on the stability of submarine hydrate-bearing slope

There are many factors affecting the instability of the submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS), and the interaction with hydrate is very complicated. In this paper, the mechanical mechanism of the static liquefaction and instability of submarine slope caused by the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) resulting in the rapid increase of pore pressure of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) and the decrease of effective stress are analyzed based on the time series and type of SHBS. Then, taking the typical submarine slope in the northern South China Sea as an example, four important factors affecting the stability of SHBS are selected, such as the degree of hydrate dissociation, the depth of hydrate burial, the thickness of hydrate, and the depth of seawater. According to the principle of orthogonal method, 25 orthogonal test schemes with 4 factors and 5 levels are designed and the safety factors of submarine slope stability of each scheme are calculated by using the strength reduction finite element method. By means of the orthogonal design range analysis and the variance analysis, sensitivity of influential factors on stability of SHBS are obtained. The results show that the degree of hydrate dissociation is the most sensitive, followed by hydrate burial depth, the thickness of hydrate and the depth of seawater. Finally, the concept of gas hydrate critical burial depth is put forward according to the influence law of gas hydrate burial depth, and the numerical simulation for specific submarine slope is carried out, which indicates the existence of critical burial depth.     

一次沿海局地特大暴雨的集合敏感性分析

利用常规观测资料和EC集合预报资料,基于集合敏感性方法 ,首先分析了2018年10月21日广西沿海局地特大暴雨过程的降水影响天气系统及关键区,并进一步分析了集合预报效果,得到不同层次气压场及风场的降水敏感特征以及集合预报降水预报偏差的可能主要原因,所得结论可供预报参考。