闽南地区汛期短历时降水气候特征

通过对厦门，安溪，九仙同山峰尤溪等４站２５年５－６月逐时降水资料的统计分析，初步揭示了汛期闽南地区不同形环境下的短历时降水的气候和条件气候的分布特征，得到若干对短时了和服务有参考价值的结论。     

热带西太平洋热状况年代际和年际变化特征分析

采用谐波分析和EOF分析方法,对比研究了暖池区域表层热状况(海表温度距平SST'表征)和浅层热状况(热含量距平HS'和次表层海温距平ST'表征)在1月和7月的年代际、年际尺度时空特征.分析结果表明:⑴不同季节的年代际、年际尺度SST'和HS'都存在两个显著模态,HS'1月的年代际、年际尺度结构最简单,而SST'7月的年代际和1月年际结构最复杂;⑵ 1970年代末和1980年代初发生的年代际跃变HS'晚于SST', 且SST'(HS')呈增温(减少)趋势;⑶ HS'的年际异常与ENSO关系密切,而SST'与ENSO关系不显著.     

1960—2017年河西地区降水时空变化特征

利用1960—2017年日降水量资料,采用线性倾向趋势分析、滑动分析和泰森多边形法等,对河西地区多年降水时空变化特征及不同量级降水日数及降水强度的变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明：河西地区年均降水量为99.0 mm,呈现明显的逐年上升趋势,平均倾向率为8.72 mm?（10a）^-1,月降水量为单峰分布,5—10月夏秋汛期降水量占年降水量的89.2%,各季节降水量均呈现显著上升趋势;年均降水日数为36.7天,呈现明显的上升趋势,增幅为3.18 d?（10a）^-1,降水日数主要分布在夏季,约占总降水日数的54.6%;平均降水强度为2.70 mm?d^-1,呈现减弱趋势,变化速率为-0.04 mm?d^-1?（10a）^-1;零星小雨和小雨降水日数均呈现增加趋势,而二者平均降水强度均为下降趋势,小到中雨降水日数和降水强度呈现增加趋势,中雨及以上的降水变化趋势不明显。     

两广地区前、后汛期降水异常反位相现象及可能机理

利用1961—2018年中国地面气象台站2 400站中广东省和广西壮族自治区(两广地区)134站逐日降水资料、英国Hadley中心逐月海表温度资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,筛选了两广地区前汛期降水正(负)异常、后汛期降水负(正)异常的年份,即前、后汛期降水异常反位相年份。结果表明,近60 a来,两广地区前、后汛期降水反位相现象与热带西太平洋海温异常存在密切联系。前汛期期间,当热带西太平洋海温为负异常时,大气对该冷源的Rossby波响应引起西北太平洋反气旋环流异常,且水汽由热带西太平洋向两广地区输送并辐合,同时两广地区为水汽的湿平流区域、风场异常辐合区域,其上空受异常上升运动控制,这样的环流配置有利于两广前汛期期间降水正异常。热带西太平洋海温负异常可持续至后汛期期间,大气的Rossby波响应所致的西太平洋反气旋较前汛期偏西北,两广地区为水汽异常辐散区域,同时水汽干平流且风场异常辐散,受异常下沉运动控制,不利于两广地区降水的产生。反之亦然。     

Relations indices de Végétation–Pluie au Burkina Faso: Cas du Bassin Versant du Nakambé/Relationship between Rainfall and Vegetation Indexes in Burkina Faso: A Case Study of the Nakambé Basin

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of the use of remote sensing data derived from NOAA/AVHRR observations for monitoring the West African Sahel climatic variability. NDVI is widely used in hydrological and climatological research, and in the study of global climatic changes. The relationships between NDVI and climatic parameters are not well established yet and are the focus of many studies. The relationships between NDVI and rainfall were studied at a 10-day time step in the Nakambe River basin in Burkina Faso in the Sahelo-Sudanian area over the years 1982–1999. Good correlations were found in the annual evolution of these two variables. The statistical analysis shows a significant relationship between NDVI and the sum of the annual rainfall with determination coefficients greater than 0.80. At the spatial scale of 0.5° × 0.5°, the determination coefficient ranges from 0.91 to 0.96. It was also found that the NDVI is a good indicator of the determination of the beginning and the end of the rainy season. It gives reasonably good results in comparison with the other methods commonly used in the study region.     

春季热带地区OLR低频振荡及其与长江中下游连阴雨

本文应用NOAA卫星接收的1975—1983年向外长波辐射(OLR)资料研究了春季热带地区低频振荡的基本特征,得出东半球热带地区盛行周期为30天左右的低频振荡,这种振荡最显著的区域在0—10°S、70—90°E的印度洋地区。文章阐述了过渡季节这种低频振荡的经向和纬向传播特征。 本文还进一步指出,在热带低频振荡的不同阶段,ITCZ、北半球副热带以及西风带环流系统也呈现出显著的周期变化,并查证了低频振荡作为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴过程的背景事实。因此本研究工作也为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴天气的中、长期可预报性提供     

春季高原东侧水平稳定层分析

本文利用稠密的探空资料,分析了春季高原东侧的水平稳定层。确定了该稳定层的范围和强度,指出了其温度、湿度和流场特征,并初步探讨了其维持机制。     

青藏高原雪盖异常对福建雨季旱涝影响的环流诊断

利用19555-1994年多种不同类型青藏高原积雪资料的综合再分析结果，通过分析青藏高原雪盖异常年冬季和初夏北半球大气环流特征，及北半球大气环流与福建雨季降水的遥相关，讨论高原雪盖异常反馈影响大气环流，进而导致福建雨季旱涝的可能途径，为在福建雨季旱涝预测中应用积雪因子提供一定的物理基础。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU DURING SUMMER 1998 AND ITS IMPACT ON EAST ASIAN WEATHER*

The seasonal variation of rainy season over the Tibetan Plateau in summer 1998 is analyzed by using daily observational rainfall data for Lhasa from 1955 to 1996,and rainfall data at 70 stations from January to August of 1998 over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and adjacent regions,as well as TBB data from May to August of 1998.The onset date of rainy season for Lhasa is climatologically 6 June.Among the analyzed years,the earliest onset date is 6 May,while the latest may delay to 2 July.The obvious inter-decadal variation can be found in the series of onset date.The onset date of summer 1998 over middle TP (onset date of Lhasa) is 24 June,which is relatively later than the normal case.The onset for rainy season of 1998 started over southeast and northeast parts of TP and then propagated westward and northward.The convection over east and west parts of TP shows that there is a quasi 12-15 day oscillation.In June,the convection over middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River is formed by the westward propagation of convection over subtropical western Pacific.while in July.it is formed by the eastward propagation of convection over TP.Besides,it is also found that there exists good negative and obvious advance and lag correlation between the convection over the middle and western TP and that over the subtropical western Pacific and southern China.Therefore it can be inferred that a feedback zonal circulation with a quasi two-three week oscillation exists between the ascending region of TP and descending region of subtropical western Pacific,i.e.the convection over TP may affect the subtropical high over western Pacific and vice versa.     

云南雨季逐候降水量的低频振荡特征

应用主分量方法分析了云南省84站1991~2000年雨季(5~10月)逐候降水量的主要时空特征,并用非整波技术分析了所提取的第1、第2主分量频谱分布的低频振荡特点,同时分析了低频振荡现象与El Nino(La Nina)事件及云南雨季降水多、少之间的关系。结果表明:①云南地区雨季降水主要低频振荡周期为6候(30天)、10候(50天)的月际振荡和15~17候(75~85天)的季节内振荡;②云南雨季的候降水每年都存在30天振荡周期,30天振荡是云南雨季固有的振荡;③当发生El Nino或La Nina异常气候事件时,云南雨季的候降水存在50天振荡周期;④当云南雨季存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期(6~8月)降水距平百分率为正(除2000年为零距平);当云南雨季不存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期降水距平百分率为负。