An artificial neural network-based snow cover predictive modeling in the higher Himalayas

With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network （ANN）, was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.     

基于历史数据的黄海浒苔爆发规模预测

依据黄海浒苔初始覆盖面积及最大覆盖面积的历史数据,选取温度、光强、降水3种对于浒苔生长扩散最重要的影响因子,本文提出并建立了基于BP神经网络确定转换系数R的浒苔覆盖面积预测模型,可在浒苔出现初期即实现对本年度浒苔最大覆盖面积的模拟预测,并通过历史数据进行验证。结果表明,所预测的浒苔最大爆发情况与真实情况相符,研究成果可为浒苔的应急准备工作争取更多的时间提供一定参考。     

加拿大地盾

加拿大地盾（CanadianShield）是北美大陆从加拿大中部延伸到北部的古岩盘,大致上围绕啥得孙湾,主要是由距今约45亿年前～5.4亿年前的前寒武纪岩石构成,覆盖面积达450万平方公里,约占加拿大陆地面积的一半,也是加拿大的地理核心。由于地盾上的地表大多是;中刷的沉积物或;水川侵蚀的余物,一般不适于发展农业,但这里的针叶林却是无价的资源。     

北极河流径流量变化及影响因子分析

利用最新的北极径流资料(R-arcticNET V3.0和Arctic RIMS),对进入北冰洋的4条主要河流的季节及年代际变化进行诊断分析。结果表明:入海径流在4-6月的大幅增加主要是由气温达到融点后积雪融化造成的,降水的作用次之。总的来说,欧亚区域在过去的70年里入海径流量是增加的,而北美区域在近30年里入海径流量是减小的,但注入北冰洋的径流总量是增大的。值得注意的是入海径流的年代际变化在不同季节增减趋势显著不同,夏季和秋季径流量减小,而其他两个季节径流量增大。进一步分析了影响入海径流变化的一些气候因子,结果表明:北大西洋涛动(北太平洋指数)与欧亚(北美)区域的冬、春季径流量存在正相关。春季气温与春季径流量呈正相关,而与夏季径流量呈负相关。降水与径流量基本上为同步正相关。春季积雪覆盖面积与春季径流量为负相关,而与夏季径流量为正相关,夏季积雪覆盖面积与夏季的径流量为正相关。     

鱼类世界的“超级团队”

当大西洋鲱鱼相互靠近时，它们最终会形成一个极为庞大的团体。最近，科学家利用海洋成像技术发现：一个大西洋鲱鱼的“超级团队”中有几亿个成员，而整个团队的覆盖面积可达几十平方千米。这项研究的带头人，美国麻省理工学院的海洋学家尾古拉斯·马克里斯表示，目前，大西洋鲱鱼的数量正在减少，了解它们的群体特征将有助于人类对其进行保护。大西洋鲱鱼聚集在一起主要有两个目的一是更容易找到配偶，     

新一代天气雷达布网设计的有效覆盖和地形遮挡分析

一般情况下,地形影响造成的雷达波束遮挡是长期保持不变的。研究雷达地形遮挡情况有助于提升雷达探测资料的有效性和可靠性。利用先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型地形数据,对我国已建成的208个新一代天气雷达站点进行地形遮挡分析,计算业务体扫模式(Volume Coverage Pattern modes, VCP)21的九个仰角下200 km范围内雷达反射率的波束阻挡系数,绘制观测仰角分别为0.5°、1. 45°、2. 4°和3. 35°时雷达有效观测区域的覆盖图,计算相应的有效覆盖面积。结果表明全国新一代天气雷达站200 km范围内0. 5°、1. 45°、2. 4°和3. 35°仰角平均遮挡比例分别为30. 7%、8. 5%、2. 5%和1.0%,平均有效覆盖面积分别为83210.5、109354.2、118170.9、121631.5 km~2,只有少数几个雷达站受邻近山脉地形遮挡影响严重,雷达站总体有效覆盖情况较好。     

Composition and distribution of fish species collected during the fourth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in 2010

There are awareness and concerns caused by the decreasing sea ice coverage around the Arctic and Antarctic due to effects of climate change. Emphasis in this study was on rapid changes in Arctic sea ice coverage and its impacts on the marine ecology during the fourth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in 2010. Our purpose was to establish a baseline of Arctic fish compositions, and consequent effects of climate change on the fish community and biogeography. Fish specimens were col- lected using a multinet middle-water trawl, French-type beam trawl, otter trawl, and triangular bottom trawl. In total, 36 tows were carried out along the shelf of the Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and Chukchi Sea in the Arctic Ocean. in total, 41 fish species belonging to 14 families in 7 orders were collected during the expedition. Among them, the Scorpaeniformes, including 17 species, accounted for almost one third of the total number （34.8%）, followed by 14 species of the Perciformes （27.0%）, 5 species of the Pleuronecti- formes （22.3%）, and 2 species of the Gadiformes （15.4%）. The top 6 most abundant species were Hippoglossoides robustus, Bore- gadus saida, Myoxocephalus scorpius, Lumpenus fabricii, Artediellus scaber, and Gymnoeanthus trieuspis. Abundant species var- ied according to the different fishing methods; numbers of families and species recorded did not differ with the various fishing methods; species and abundances decreased with depth and latitude; and species extending over their known geographic ranges were observed during the expedition. Station information, species list, and color photographs of all fishes are provided.     

2002-2011年新疆积雪时空分布特征研究北大核心CSCD

基于2002-2011年的MODIS积雪产品数据, 对新疆积雪的年际变化特征、年内变化特征及空间分布特征进行了分析.结果表明： 年内积雪从10月中旬开始建立, 于1月面积达到最大, 7月面积达到最小.其中, 冬季积雪面积所占比例最大, 夏季最小. 2002-2011年新疆积雪面积总体上呈减少趋势. 其中, 春季和冬季为减少趋势;夏季的积雪由于其基本上都是高海拔的永久性积雪, 故比较稳定, 变化趋势不明显;秋季为上升趋势.新疆积雪空间分布极不均匀, 北疆积雪分布明显多于南疆.山区为积雪覆盖频次的高值区, 盆地为积雪覆盖频次的低值区.永久性积雪在阿尔泰山脉分布较少, 主要分布在天山山脉和昆仑山脉.就永久性积雪面积而言, 分布在海拔5 000~6 000 m的面积最大, 其次是海拔4 000~5 000 m, 再次是海拔6 000~7 000 m.     

45a来塔里木河流域气温、降水变化及其对积雪面积的影响

对塔里木河流域19个台站45 a(1958-2002年)的气温、降水序列进行非参数检验,查明其变化趋势及特征,在此基础上,对近20 a(1982-2001年)流域的积雪面积(SCA,%)变化进行趋势与相关分析.结果表明:流域的气温和降水均在20世纪80年代中期发生了阶段式的跳跃增长,气温和降水增加的主要季节分别为冬季和夏季.流域总体的积雪面积呈缓慢增加态势,其中北区和西区增加较为稳定,而南区相对不稳定.在垂直方向上,海拔<2 500 m的区域积雪面积表现缓慢增加,而海拔≥2 500 m的区域则减少.相比较,低海拔区域更易受降水影响,而高海拔区域更易受气温影响.海拔2 500~5 000 m的高度带是对气候变化较为敏感的区域.20世纪90年代与80年代相比,降雪和融雪的速度都更快.积雪与冷季降水呈正相关,但与冷季气温没有明显的相关关系.