基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

广州城市流浪乞讨者的空间管治与日常生活实践

以广州流浪乞讨者为研究对象,通过深度访谈等质性研究方法,解读针对流浪乞讨者的空间管治政策与手段,分析流浪乞讨者的日常生活实践与生境协商。研究发现：在地方城市政策对流动性与公共秩序限制的双重压力下,在流浪乞讨者的日常生活实践中,不仅有针对管治行动者而刻意为之的特殊营建,亦有基于程式化生活流程对自我身份认同的重塑与真情实感的展演。地方政府基于空间目标的救助与真实存在的日常生活实践存在着一种张力。研究关注了城市边缘群体日常生活对地理意义的主动塑造过程,对全面理解并规范管理中国城市流浪乞讨现象具有借鉴意义。     

脐带缆螺旋滑移分析及力学性能研究

针对脐带缆内部螺旋层,应用Darboux标架建立螺旋结构空间坐标系,推导弯曲载荷下螺旋结构的局部变形和滑移。考虑螺旋构件间的接触和摩擦作用,建立螺旋结构的受力平衡偏微分方程,并研究螺旋角和摩擦系数对螺旋结构滑移的影响。基于同层螺旋结构本构关系相同假设,将所有螺旋结构力学性能线性叠加,拟合脐带缆整体弯曲刚度。运用建立的理论解析方法,对某双层铠装脐带缆的力学性能进行研究,并与数值模拟结果进行对比验证。对比结果表明,理论解析得到的螺旋滑移结果与数值模拟结果一致,理论解析得到的脐带缆弯曲刚度与数值模拟结果在全滑动阶段比较接近。     

大亚湾浮游植物粒级结构对温排水和营养盐输入的响应*

大亚湾核电站温排水对其邻近海域的生态效应日益突出。文章结合现场调查和室内模拟实验, 研究了夏季和冬季大亚湾海域沿温排水温度梯度的浮游植物粒径结构特征, 探讨了营养物质的输入可能对其产生的影响, 以期深入了解浮游植物对升温以及富营养化作用的响应机制。结果表明, 适温条件对浮游植物的生长起促进作用, 在极高温(36.0℃)环境下则产生抑制作用, 在排水口邻近高温区夏季和冬季浮游植物叶绿素a含量均呈较低分布。交互模拟实验发现不同季节浮游植物对于温度和营养盐的敏感性存在差异, 夏季营养盐对浮游植物生长的促进作用比温度明显, 冬季温度的作用则更为显著。现场观测和模拟实验均显示, 水温升高和营养盐加富均可造成小粒级浮游植物 (<20μm)所占比例的增加; 因此, 升温和营养盐输入均可能导致浮游植物粒级结构呈小型化趋势, 并对食物网能量流动与物质循环、生态系统的结构稳定性以及海洋渔业的产量造成潜在影响。     

Spatial patch structure and adaptive strategy for desert shrub of Reaumuria soongorica in arid ecosystem of the Heihe River Basin

In many arid ecosystems, vegetation frequently occurs in high-cover patches interspersed in a matrix of low plant cover. However, theoretical explanations for shrub patch pattern dynamics along climate gradients remain unclear on a large scale. This context aimed to assess the variance of the Reaumuria soongorica patch structure along the precipitation gradient and the factors that affect patch structure formation in the middle and lower Heihe River Basin (HRB). Field investigations on vegetation patterns and heterogeneity in soil properties were conducted during 2014 and 2015. The results showed that patch height, size and plant-to-patch distance were smaller in high precipitation habitats than in low precipitation sites. Climate, soil and vegetation explained 82.5% of the variance in patch structure. Spatially, R. soongorica shifted from a clumped to a random pattern on the landscape towards the MAP gradient, and heterogeneity in the surface soil properties (the ratio of biological soil crust (BSC) to bare gravels (BG)) determined the R. soongorica population distribution pattern in the middle and lower HRB. A conceptual model, which integrated water availability and plant facilitation and competition effects, was revealed that R. soongorica changed from a flexible water use strategy in high precipitation regions to a consistent water use strategy in low precipitation areas. Our study provides a comprehensive quantification of the variance in shrub patch structure along a precipitation gradient and may improve our understanding of vegetation pattern dynamics in the Gobi Desert under future climate change.

     

Time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers: Numerical investigation

In order to model non‐Fickian transport behaviour in groundwater aquifers, various forms of the time–space fractional advection–dispersion equation have been developed and used by several researchers in the last decade. The solute transport in groundwater aquifers in fractional time–space takes place by means of an underlying groundwater flow field. However, the governing equations for such groundwater flow in fractional time–space are yet to be developed in a comprehensive framework. In this study, a finite difference numerical scheme based on Caputo fractional derivative is proposed to investigate the properties of a newly developed time–space fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in confined aquifers in terms of the time–space fractional mass conservation equation and the time–space fractional water flux equation. Here, we apply these time–space fractional governing equations numerically to transient groundwater flow in a confined aquifer for different boundary conditions to explore their behaviour in modelling groundwater flow in fractional time–space. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed time–space fractional governing equation for groundwater flow in confined aquifers may provide a new perspective on modelling groundwater flow and on interpreting the dynamics of groundwater level fluctuations. Additionally, the numerical results may imply that the newly derived fractional groundwater governing equation may help explain the observed heavy‐tailed solute transport behaviour in groundwater flow by incorporating nonlocal or long‐range dependence of the underlying groundwater flow field.     

张力腿平台筋腱支撑浮筒结构设计研究

在张力腿平台筋腱与海底桩基连接后,需要筋腱支撑浮筒为筋腱提供足够的浮力,保证筋腱在平台运抵工作海域之前不会发生倾覆。针对南海油田自主研发的张力腿平台筋腱实际尺寸及设计要求,设计了适用于1 061 mm(40英寸)筋腱、500米水深的张力腿平台筋腱支撑浮筒,并对筋腱支撑浮筒主要受力进行了分析计算,根据所计算的载荷情况对关键部件进行了有限元仿真分析,验证了结构强度的可靠性,并得到了结构的应力集中点与最大变形点,为筋腱支撑浮筒的结构设计提供了参考。     

京津冀协同发展重要地理国情监测研究与应用

文章阐述了开展京津冀协同发展重要地理国情监测的现实背景和意义,依托地理国情普查和常态化监测,结合京津冀一体化发展需求,提出了京津冀协同发展重要地理国情监测的总体思路、研究内容、关键技术和研究方法等,并开展了京津冀地区自然生态空间变化监测、高等级公路和铁路交通网络变化监测、重点大气颗粒物污染源空间分布监测等重要地理国情信息监测研究,成果已经在京津冀地区可持续发展评价、京津冀生态文明建设、空间规划管理等工作中得到了广泛应用。     

Otolith microchemistry indicates regional phylopatry in the larval phase of an amphidromous fish (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)

Knowledge of stock structure is key for the effective management of any fish species. Amphidromous fish, which live and spawn in freshwater but spend a pelagic larval period at sea, have typically been assumed to disperse widely during their larval phase, resulting in populations being sourced from a single unstructured larval pool. We used otolith microchemical analysis to examine the stock structure of bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), a declining amphidromous eleotrid endemic to New Zealand, along the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. Some drainages – even those in close proximity (c. 20?km) – were readily distinguishable based on otolith trace element concentrations, while little structure was evident between other geographically disparate locations. These results indicate that, at least in some cases, locally retained larvae, rather than a single unstructured larval pool, dominates recruitment. Management of bluegill bully and other amphidromous species must therefore consider the possibility of regionally distinct populations.     

浙南近海虾类群落结构及其多样性分析

作者根据2015年11月(秋季)、2016年2月(冬季)、2016年5月(春季)和2016年8月(夏季)对浙南近海进行的渔业资源调查数据,用生物量作为虾类资源分布的数量指标,对该海域虾类的组成、数量分布以及季节变化进行分析。结果显示:该区域共鉴定出虾类30种,隶属于10科21属,以对虾科(Penaeidae)虾类最多,其次为管鞭虾科(Solenoceridae),长臂虾科(Palaemonida)位居第3位。按季节来看,秋季共鉴定虾类27种,各站位平均生物量为6.97 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾(Solenocera koelbeli)、中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)和中华管鞭虾(Solenocera crassicornis)等3种;冬季鉴定出虾类25种,平均生物量为1.65 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾、扁足异对虾(Atypopenaeus stenodactylus)、日本鼓虾(Alpheus japonicus)、鲜明鼓虾(Alpheus digitalis)、中国毛虾、中华管鞭虾和周氏新对虾(Metapenaeus joyneri)等7种;春季20种,平均生物量为2.22 kg/km2,优势种为戴氏赤虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)、东海红虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)和中华管鞭虾等3种;夏季16种,平均生物量为10.36 kg/km2,优势种有鹰爪虾(Trachysalambria curvirostris)和中华管鞭虾等2种。Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)秋季均低于冬季。秋冬季受到浙闽沿岸流影响,温度、盐度相对较低,夏季受到台湾暖流外侧影响,温度、盐度相对较高,且各季节间由于瓯江、椒江、飞云江、鳌江等陆源性冲淡水的影响,盐度、温度变化相对较大,使得该区域的物种不得不适应一个跨度较大的温盐范围,广温广盐性种类为主。