Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

湖南省似大地水准面2017模型及精度分析

利用近7万个湖南及邻近省份重力观测数据、502个GNSS/水准控制点及数字高程模型，以EIGEN-6C4全球重力场模型作参考重力场，采用顾及地球曲率影响的各类地形质量位及引力的第二类Helmert凝集法严密算法，利用高分辨率地形数据恢复甚短波扰动重力场，确定空间分辨率2′×2′的高精度湖南省似大地水准面模型（HNGG2017）。经外部检核，模型整体精度均优于±0.022 m。与历史模型相比，新模型在湖南北部常德汉寿、西南部永州江永等地区精度得到显著改善。     

经济地理学视角下创新网络与区域增长研究述评

创新是引领经济发展的第一动力，创新与区域增长之间的关系成为经济地理学者关注的重点领域。文章通过梳理近年来有关创新网络测度、创新网络与区域增长关系、创新网络作用于区域增长方式等方面的文献发现：网络资本可以弥补社会资本在解释企业创新结网经济价值方面的不足，区域增长呈现出网络化特征已成为学界共识，知识流与邻近性能较好地解释创新网络与区域增长的关系机理。然而，当前研究对社会资本如何促进区域增长，网络资本与区域增长关系模型如何构建，不同类型的邻近性与知识对区域增长的影响有何差异等问题尚不明确，建议重视网络资本对区域增长的作用并实证检验二者的关联，同时还应重视创新网络中企业家精神、创新个体心理行为特征等因素对区域增长的影响。     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

全球气候变化下南海诸岛保护优先区识别分析

全球变化下,珊瑚礁保护区是保护生物多样性、增强珊瑚礁对气候变暖抵抗力的有效方式,而维持珊瑚礁弹性是其核心内容。针对珊瑚礁最具有威胁性的热压力因子,基于南海1982—2009年卫星观测海表面温度（SST）数据和CMIP5加拿大地球系统模式CanESM2模型预估的2006—2100年南海SST数据构建热压力强度模型,从维持珊瑚礁弹性的角度识别IPCC RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下南海诸岛保护优先区。结果表明：RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下13%左右的南海诸岛珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区。根据热压力强度与珊瑚抵抗力及避难所关系,西沙群岛七连屿和晋卿岛近年观测与未来预估的热压力强度均比较低,在保障其服务功能的基础上建议实施完全保护;东沙群岛东沙环礁和中沙环礁排洪滩近年观测急性热压力强度较高但未来预估热压力强度较低,建议实施50%禁止利用保护;中沙群岛黄岩岛近年观测和未来预估的急性热压力强度均比较低,建议实施50%多用途保护。南沙群岛有14%左右的珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区,根据其热压力强度可实施30%~100%禁止利用保护或30%~50%多用途保护。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的南海诸岛保护优先区及保护对策,可为维持珊瑚礁生态弹性及应对全球气候变化提供重要的参考价值。     

BORDER PORT MANZHOULh URBAN FUNCTION AND SPACE DEVELOPMENT

Manzhouli is the largest land port city on the Sino-Russia border, transit cargo through the land port amount-ed to 5.95 million tons, transit tourists were 304 500 in 2000. It stands at the joint place of China, Mongolia and Russi-a, faces to Siberia area of Russia, receives direct support from the Northeast China and Bohai Sea Rim Area, and possess-es priorities in geographical location, land port infrastructure, water resources, coal resources, tourist resources andgreat potentiality in economic cooperation with Russia. The future urban function is a key port on the First Eurasia Continen-tal Bridge. Manzhouli Port will keep its first place between China and Russia land transport, and it is forecasted that thetransit amount through Manzhouli Port will go up to 10 million tons in 2005 and 20 million tons in 2010. It will be construct-ed to be a trade center of the peripheral area extending to Russia and Mongolia, a key export-oriented processing industri-al zone supported by industries such as export processing industries, export agriculture, trade services, technology trad-ing and the other service industries. It keeps being a well-known touring city for trade, shopping, sightseeing, vocation,local food, recreation and cultural events. To build Manzhouli Export Processing Industry Zone will improve city econom-ic structure, and the main sectors are organic food processing, livestock products processing, garment and furniture indus-try. Moreover, Manzhouli Export Processing Industry Zone will eventually be upgraded to be a border free trade zone.The city functional transition will inevitably affect urban spatial restructure and its expansion. The city space transforma-tion will develop as such: one development axis of No. 301 highway paralleling with Bin - Zhou(Harbin - Manzhouli) rail-way which cuts through central part of Manzhouli City, and links Zhalainuocr District with central city; three urban unitsincluding central city, Zhalainuocr District and Manzhouli Interchange Trade Zone; cohesion with Aoerjin and Cuogangpastures; regional dual-nuclei structure of Hailaer City and Manhzouli City; and the Manzhouli-Zabaykalsk Free TradeZone.     

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.     

GPS中BOC调制的FPGA实现

GPS系统中提出了一种新的信号形式,二进制偏移载波(BOC)调制是这种新的信号形式产生的技术关键。首先介绍了BOC调制的定义及其频谱特性,然后阐述了基于FPGA(现场可编程门阵列)硬件平台的BOC调制实现方法,并给出了仿真波形。结果表明,该实现方法是值得提倡的。