Occurrence,durée et intensité des précipitations simulées par deux modèles régionaux canadiens du climat sur la région du Maghreb

[Translated by the editorial staff] Simulating the precipitation regime of Northern Africa is challenging for regional climate models, particularly because of the strong spatial and temporal variability of rain events in the region. In this study we evaluate simulations conducted with two recent versions of regional climate models (RCM) developed in Canada: the CRCM5 and CanRCM4. Both are also used in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-Africa. The assessment is based on the occurrence, duration, and intensity indices of daily precipitation in Maghreb during the fall and spring seasons from 1998 to 2008. We also examine the links between the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, weather systems, and the precipitation regime over the region. During the rainy season (September to February), the CRCM5 reproduces the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation adequately, as well as the occurrence of days with rain, while the CanRCM4 underestimates precipitation extremes. The study of links between weather systems and the precipitation regime shows that, along the Atlantic coast, precipitation (occurrence, intensity, and wet sequences) increases significantly with storm frequency in the fall. In winter, these links grow stronger going east, from the Atlantic coast to the Mediterranean coast. The negative phases of the NAO index are statistically associated with the increase in rain intensity, extremes, and accumulation along the Atlantic coast in the fall. However, the link weakens in winter over these regions and strengthens along the Mediterranean coast as the precipitation frequency rises during negative phases of the NAO. Both RCMs generally reproduce the links between the NAO and the precipitation regime well, regardless of location.     

Appropriate Spatial Sampling of Rainfall or Flow Simulation/Echantillonnage Spatial de la Pluie Approprié pour la Simulation D'écoulements

Abstract

The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns.     

A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District / Un indice de précipitation de 200 ans pour la Région des Lacs en Angleterre

Abstract

Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability.     

Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: II. Empirical investigation of long rainfall records / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: II. Recherche empirique sur de longues séries de précipitations

Abstract

Abstract In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution.     

Précision de l'estimation des précipitations au Sahel selon la densité du réseau d'observation pluviométrique

Many earlier studies have shown the very large spatial variability of rainfall in the Sahel at all time steps, from the event to the season. Often, the meteorological network in these countries is sparse, with one to five rain gauges per 10 000 km². It is thus difficult to calculate accurate estimates of the mean rainfall over such a large area. To improve the knowledge of Sahelian systems and the spatial distribution of rainfall, a dense network was set up in an area of 16 000 km² in southwestern Niger between 1991 and 1996. The aim was to calculate accurate rainfall spatial means over an area of 12 000 km² at different time steps (from the season to the ten-day period). With the spatialisation method used (kriging), it was possible to calculate curves of estimation errors of mean rainfall versus the rain-gauge network density. Operational abacuses of the standard estimation error as a function of the spatial mean of rainfall and the network density are proposed.     

Sequential Separation of Uranium,Hafnium and Neodymium from Natural Waters Concentrated by Iron Coprecipitation

A new ion exchange chromatography method is presented for the isolation of high field‐strength elements (HFSE) from freshwater and seawater samples that have undergone iron coprecipitation. Large volumes of water can be condensed through the application of iron coprecipitation, but clean separation of elements from the precipitate proves difficult. The technique described is a five‐column process designed to separate the HFSE, including rare earth elements such as neodymium and hafnium, before removing the iron and isolating uranium. Subsequent isolation of Nd and Hf was achieved using established ion exchange chromatography methods. The efficacy of our chemistry was verified by measurements of analytical reference materials – both reference solutions and seawater samples – subjected to the chemical separation methods described. Elution results indicate high yields (> 90%) determined by concentration measurements of a known reference material added to each column. Measurement results for isotopic compositions of seawater (U, Nd) and reference solutions (NIST SRM 960, U) were identical within uncertainty to previously published values. Compositions were identical between solutions (Spex CLMS3, Spex PLND2) that underwent different iron coprecipitation procedures. Isotopic determinations for reference materials JNdi‐1 and NIST SRM 960 measured with the mass spectrometers used in this study were in agreement with universally accepted values for these materials, and indicate high precision.     

Relationship between precipitation phase and air temperature: comparison between the Bolivian Andes and the Swiss Alps / Relation entre phase de précipitation et température de l'air: comparaison entre les Andes Boliviennes et les Alpes Suisses

Abstract

Determining the precipitation phase—rain or snow—is an important factor in modelling discharge in mountainous basins. In a study carried out in the outer tropical Andes Cordillera of Bolivia, half-hourly determination of precipitation phase was obtained by applying a suitable expert system, taking 11 meteorological parameters into consideration that are measured over 21 months at an altitude close to 4800 m. Straightforward relationships between the determined precipitation phase and observed air temperature were analysed in histograms that contain percentage occurrences of snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation events for 0.5°C air temperature increments. The graph shows a nearly identical distribution of percentage occurrences of snowfall in the Andes to that on a 1600-m high site in the Swiss Alps. This result suggests that, for hydrological modelling purposes in the outer tropical Andes, the same rain/snow threshold temperature as in the compared Swiss site can be applied.     

Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming / Simulations à long terme de changements d’écoulement fluvial et d’humidité du sol causés par le réchauffement global

Abstract

Abstract By use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the ?IS92a? scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob’ increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.     

Evolution récente des paramètres cryo-climatiques et des teneurs isotopiques des précipitations dans les Andes Boliviennes: La Paz et Glacier du Zongo

Résumé

A proximité de La Paz, Bolivie, les indicateurs marquants de la tendance climatique sont: (a) une augmentation de la température de ré-analyse à 500 hPa de 0.017°C an^-1 entre 1973 et 2004; (b) à la station météorologique Laïca Cota, entre 1995 et 2004, une élévation de la température de 0.03°C an^-1 et une diminution de l'humidité relative de 0.6 % an^-1; et (c) une augmentation du δ¹⁸O des précipitations de 0.26‰ an^-1 et de leur excès en deutérium de 0.1‰ an^-1. Une des principales conséquences de cette tendance est un recul du front du Glacier Zongo de 12 m an^-1 entre 1991 et 2004 (réduction de 2% par an des surfaces glaciaires de 1997 à 2004: 1.84 km² en 2004). L'analyse temporelle concomitante des données montre que la variabilité des conditions ENSO a des conséquences en phase à l'échelle infra-annuelle pour la température, l'humidité relative, la précipitation, le bilan glaciaire, et des conséquences en déphasage, sur des périodes dépassant l'année, pour le rapport isotopique des précipitations andines.