“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

行星磁场与卫星引力及其相对运动的统计关系

从知道某些天体具有磁场起，人们就对其磁场的起源提出种种解释，例如有电池说，转子说，化石说，发电机说等等。但由于这些学说都分别与某些观测事实相抵触而未被公认，因此星球磁场的起源一直是未能解决的命题。余先河先生提出，星球的磁场起源可能与所受的引力有关，行星的磁场强度正比于其所受卫星的引力；正比于卫星与行星的引力连线转动的相对角速度。本文对这两方面的命题分别进行了相关分析，得到其相关系数分别为：ｒ＝０．８４８１和ｒ＝０．８４２５，它们都在ａ＝０．０１的信度水平上相关。结果表明余新河关于行星磁场起源的设想是有基础的。本文还对其统计结果和可能机制进行了讨论。     

天灾研究中的当代物理新途径

应用当代物理学中的量子化方法，将日－地空间量子化。借天体分层结构特征，对地震震级公式及天体引潮力激起的孤波储能触发地震的原理作了探索性讨论。     

空间扰动引力的谱分析

基于重力场的频谱理论，给出了扰动引力在全球平均意义下的功率谱表达式，揭示了扰动引力的传播特性。通过数值试验，给出了扰动引力随高度变化规律，并分析了不同高度上，扰动引力恢复重力场的最高阶数及相应分辨率。从理论上分析了航空重力测量探测重力场中高频信息的能力，对制定飞行方案有一定参考价值。     

弹道计算中的扰动引力影响研究

随着弹道导弹系统技术的不断改进,影响导弹精度的工具类误差已逐渐降低,地球重力场扰动引力已经成为影响导弹命中精度的主要因素。这里从3个方面分析了扰动引力对弹道的影响,模拟结果表明,对于射程为10000 km以上的远程导弹,扰动引力的影响会造成超过1 km的落点偏差;5×10-5m s-2的扰动引力系统性偏差对导弹落点有明显影响。因此,扰动引力对导弹落点的影响不容忽视。     

Spectral Representation Precision Based on the and Analysis of the KBR Earth Gravity Spectrum

Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking in low-low model （SST-Ⅱ） is a new technique to resolve the series of problems met in the determination of the earth＇s gravity field. As the key technique of SST-Ⅱ, KBR can get SST-Ⅱ measurements directly. So the KBR performance analysis is the first step in SST-Ⅱ design. In this paper, assuming that the satellite pairs of SST-Ⅱ are in near circle polar orbits, the spectrum relationship between the earth gravity field and KBR is established using analytic method. And then some examples are analyzed, the suggestions and conclusions are drawn from these examples. The research results could be taken as a reference for future satellite gravity project of China.     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.     

火星冲日与兴安盟地区干旱及气候预测

利用火星冲日资料，分析了兴安盟地区8个站点最近50年的月降水量时空变化规律，得出距离地球最近的火星冲日时期与兴安盟地区干旱有很好的相关关系。最近几年在短期气候预测中应用，效果非常好。用未来火星冲日月份做兴安盟地区干旱、洪涝及白灾的短期气候预测以及长期气候预测等。并且给出了本世纪之初的2010年前兴安盟地区干旱、洪涝、白灾的长期气候预测情况。     

外空扰动引力分量核函数的改化

Ｍｏｌｏｄｅｎｓｋｙ最早提出了利用最小平方逼近的方法对Ｓｔｏｋｅｓ积分核进行改化以减小外区积分的截断误差，基迂个思想，许厚泽在文献中把截断系数的解算归结为解一组ｍ次一代数方程组。本文将此方法推广到扰动引力分量的计算中，并分析了改化积分核的作用，理论分析的结果与实算结果相一致。通过改化后扰动引力分量截断系数Ｑ１ｎＲ１ｎ的量级大大减小，说明截断误差大为降低，同时也表明引逼近方法对扰动引力分量来说明样是