卫星遥感探讨杭州湾跨湖桥古文化消失原因

 8000 a前产生于杭州湾南部的跨湖桥史前灿烂文化，在辉煌了1000多a后，却神秘地消失了。针对这种消失，考古界还没有发 现确凿的原因。本文从卫星遥感角度，分析跨湖桥所处的地理、地貌特征，提出了钱塘江天文大潮冲毁跨湖桥文化的假说，希望这种 观点能够对跨湖桥这个难以用常规考古方法解决的史前文化消失问题提供一种有益的研究方法和思路。     

Impact of human activity on the estuary of the Qiantang River and the reclamation of tidal flats and river regulation

The swing of the main channel of the Qiantang River is controlled by the high-water and low-water changes in the river, as well as the impact of large-scale reclamation of tidal flats. Its evolution in modern times is the result of the combined functions of natural and man-made factors. This paper analyzes the cause of the formation of the South Channel and Xisan Tidal Furrow and proposes the regulation principle of “To regulate the river and reclaim tidal flats by taking the advantage of local topography”. It is suggested to cut off the South Channel and Xisan Tidal Furrow completely to restrict the swing of the main channel and to increase the reclamation area of the tidal flat at the same time.     

钱塘江涌潮简析与预报

根据１９９１年观测资料，仑前潮位站出现涌潮１８４次，涌潮次数多少与江道地形变迁及上游下泄流量大小有关。涌潮高度在１．２－２．２ｍ之间，与涨潮潮差成正比。涌潮潮时预报方法有传播时间法和隔日滞后时间法。涌潮高度的预报，可根据当天涌潮高度预测后一天涌潮高度，也可根据下游站的涌潮高度预报上游站的涌潮高度。     

钱塘江口涌潮的二维数值模拟

应用二维有限体积法、Osher格式及间断拟合法,计算了钱塘江河口涌潮产生、发展到消亡的全过程。该算法能保证水量和动量守恒,且能适应水深巨大变化和动边界。根据钱塘江涌潮的特点,可将其合理概化为一线潮。在网格尺寸较大情况下,计算的一线潮仍保持高分辨率,能准确满足水力学间断条件,且计算量小,可以在微机上实现。在对某实测半日小潮进行率定后,对随后的大潮进行了验证计算,涌潮的主要特征(如涌潮高度、移速、水位和流场等)与实测资料符合良好,证实了模型的合理性和模拟能力。     

青藏高原羌塘中部榴辉岩Ar-Ar定年

羌塘榴辉岩产于红脊山-双湖高压变质带中段的片石山地区,是目前青藏高原内部唯一的榴辉岩产地。榴辉岩多硅白云母~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年龄 t_p=219.3±1.5Ma;榴辉岩围岩的多硅白云母~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar 年龄 t_p=217.2±1.8Ma,定年结果表明,榴辉岩与围岩经历了相同的高压变质作用,与红脊山-双湖地区蓝闪片岩的高压变质时间是一致的。根据已有高压变质年代学资料,从羌塘的红脊山到双湖、那曲地区的巴青以北、昌都的酉西,直到滇西地区,断续分布长达2000余公里的高压变质带为同一期构造事件的产物,是龙木错-双湖板块缝合带向南延伸到滇西的重要依据。榴辉岩的定年数据进一步揭示,冈瓦纳板块与欧亚(扬子)板块的主体碰撞时间在220Ma 左右,同时也是古特提斯洋消亡的时间记录。     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近50 a来杭州湾冲淤变化规律与机制研究

使用杭州湾1959-2010年的水下地形图, 结合过去数十年来长江入海水沙量和钱塘江河口段冲淤变化状况, 分析了近50 a来杭州湾在长江入海泥沙量锐减和治江围涂等人类活动作用下的冲淤变化规律及其物理机理。结果表明, 乍浦以上区域近50 a来处于较显著的淤积状态, 且有自上向下发展的趋势, 这种淤积主要是由于钱塘江河口治江缩窄工程所引起的;湾内地形发生了局部调整, 部分小型潮流槽脊系统趋于消亡, 地形趋于平坦化, 湾口北部2003年以后有转淤为冲的趋势, 这与长江入海泥沙量锐减和该区域围垦工程等因素有关;1959-2003和2003-2010年两个时段, 湾内泥沙淤积的年平均值分别为0.91×108和1.66×108 m3。对于整个钱塘江河口系统而言, 即自杭州湾湾口至钱塘江河口段的闸口断面, 长江入海泥沙量减少所产生的影响尚不明显, 2003年以后泥沙淤积速率甚至有所上升。杭州湾近50 a的冲淤变化是人为强烈干预下的大流域-河口系统响应与中小流域-河口系统响应的调整结果。     

钱塘江河口盐度数值模拟

强潮河口盐水入侵对饮用水源地危害极大。基于平面二维水动力盐度模型, 对典型强潮河口—钱塘江的水动力及盐水入侵过程进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明枯水径流时盐度变化与潮位过程曲线类似, 潮差对盐度大小影响显著, 径流量的增加将逐渐减小其相似程度。当流量增加到一定程度后, 继续增加的一定径流量所产生的抑咸效果减弱, 水资源有效利用率降低, 此时允许水源地盐度超标并改从蓄淡避咸水库取水可有效节约水资源。盐度平面分布显示, 盐水入侵在强潮河口弯道处受涨潮流主流线影响明显, 靠近主流线一岸的盐度大于对岸, 单从盐水入侵角度考虑, 强潮河口弯道段的取水口应设置在远离涨潮流主流线一岸。钱塘江河口盐度数值模拟对于研究减轻盐水入侵对水源地危害的措施具有指导意义。     

MARINE HAZARDS IN COASTAL AREAS AND HUMAN ACTION AGAINST THEM-A CASE STUDY OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARIES AND QIANTANG RIVER

INTRODUCTIONMarinehedsresultinginenomouslossestousuallyPOpulousandeconondcallyde-veloPedlowandcoastalandestUdrineregi0nsareforngseriousattenti0n.msarticlediscussesP0ssiblepreventivemeasaresagainstInariflehazaIdsbasedonacasestUdyoftheestUedesoftheChanaiiangffiverandQiantanffiver-ThesetwoareasoftheChanaiiangDeltaareboicalofc0astalregionsfreqUenilysufferingfromdrinehazanls,andarethemostsociallyandeconondcallydeveloPedregionsinChina.Theirinhabitantshaveahist0-ryofmorethanathouSandyeare0…     

Marine hazards in coastal areas and human action against them—A case study of the Changjiang River estuaries and Qiantang River

China's eastern coastal area marine hazards (storm surge, erosion and deposition by tidal currents and seawater intrusion) and the history, present situation, experiences and problems of inhabitants in their fight against marine hazards are discussed in this paper, which also suggests counter-measures against, and scientific and rational management of, coastal area marine hazards in order to protect the coastal and estuarine ecosystems.