Comparison of two three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling systems for coastal tidal motion

A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%.     

Modelling surface runoff to evaluate the effects of wildfires in multiple semi‐arid,shrubland‐dominated catchments

Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.     

Modelling groundwater/surface water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10‐ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20‐month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short‐term responses to events as well as longer‐term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In‐channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a river delta: a case study of Cimanuk river mouth,Indonesia

This paper describes delta development processes with particular reference to Cimanuk Delta in Indonesia. Cimanuk river delta, the most rapidly growing river delta in Indonesia, is located on the northern coast of Java Island. The delta is subject to ocean waves of less than 1 m height due to its position in the semi‐enclosed Java Sea in the Indonesian archipelago. The study has been carried out using a hydrodynamic model that accounts for sediment movement through the rivers and estuaries. As an advanced approach to management of river deltas, a numerical model, namely MIKE‐21, is used as a tool in the management of Cimanuk river delta. From calibration and verification of hydrodynamic model, it was found that the best value of bed roughness was 0·1 m. For the sediment‐transport model, the calibration parameters were adjusted to obtain the most satisfactory results of suspended sediment concentration and volume of deposition. By comparing the computed and observed data in the calibration, the best values of critical bed shear stress for deposition, critical bed shear stress for erosion and erosion coefficient were 0·05 N m^?2, 0·15 N m^?2, and 0·00001 kg m^?2 s^?1, respectively. The calibrated model was then used to analyse sensitivity of model parameters and to simulate delta development during the periods 1945–1963 and 1981–1997. It was found that the sensitive model parameters were bed shear stresses for deposition and erosion, while the important model inputs were river suspended sediment concentration, sediment characteristics and hydrodynamic. The model result showed reasonable agreement with the observed data. As evidenced by field data, the mathematical model proves that the Cimanuk river delta is a river‐dominated delta because of its protrusion pattern and very high sediment loads from the Cimanuk river. It was concluded that 86% of sediment load from the Cimanuk river was deposited in the Cimanuk delta. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling of climate change impacts on Lake Burullus,coastal lagoon (Egypt)

Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.     

塔里木河源流山区径流模拟及不确定性研究

自然环境恶劣、站点稀少、观测困难是干旱区水文系统研究面临的基本问题。特殊的自然地理条件给水文过程带来了极大的复杂性和不确定性,也阻碍了干旱区水文过程和机理研究的发展。选取塔里木河源区开都河流域为研究区,采用分布式水文模型MIKE SHE模拟大尺度资料稀缺地区水文过程,将流域内气象、水文站点数据与遥感数据相结合,利用气象、土壤类型、土地利用和地表覆盖、数字高程(DEM)和降雨等资料,模拟流域水文过程;在出山口径流数据的基础上对模型进行率定和验证;分析了模型中的不确定性的来源,探讨模型优化方法。结果表明,MIKE SHE模型能在水文、气象站点稀少,土壤及水文地质数据缺乏的条件下,模拟开都河流域的日径流过程,但精度仍有待提高;通过分析识别出了隐含于模型结构、输入及参数等3个方面的8种不确定性来源。     

不同因素对人工岛波浪绕射影响研究

为研究人工岛尺度变化和波浪方向分布对人工岛绕射波浪的影响,基于MIKE21-BW模型应用数值方法模拟人工岛波浪绕射过程。数值结果与Briggs等的物理试验结果的对比表明两者吻合较好,验证了模型的适用性。在规则波条件时,圆形人工岛绕射波浪的数值结果与线性波浪绕射理论解基本一致;采用该模型分别模拟了6种尺度的圆形人工岛、单向不规则波和9种方向分布θ_(max)、4种谱峰周期条件时绕射波浪分布情况。分析结果表明,圆形人工岛绕射系数随着尺度的增加,掩护区绕射系数随之减小;θ_(max)在10°~45°范围内,随着θmax的增大,绕射系数随之增大,θ_(max)在45°~75°内绕射系数变化较小;随着谱峰周期的增加,绕射系数随之增大。研究成果既为相关规范的完善提供了基础,也为相关工程设计提供了参考。     

杭州湾海域50年一遇波浪数值模拟研究

杭州湾外围海域岛礁众多,波浪传播机制复杂。为了了解该海域的波浪分布特征,采用MIKE 21 SW模块建立了杭州湾海域波浪数值模型,利用实测波浪资料对模型进行了验证,结果表明该模型适用于模拟杭州湾海域的波浪传播。利用1970—2002年嵊山海洋站实测极值波浪资料推算50年一遇波浪要素,将其作为模型边界条件,对杭州湾海域50年一遇的设计波浪进行了模拟,并对该海域的波浪传播特征进行了分析。结果表明,杭州湾内波高较之外海明显减小,外围众多岛礁起到了很好的遮挡保护作用。