废弃海洋桩基平台拆除方案的系统决策研究

海洋平台拆除是一项复杂的、受多种因素制约的、涉及许多技术领域的综合性系统工程。采取适当的拆除方案是工程安全、经济、环保地进行的基础和保证。针对这一问题，文章对拆除方案的评估进行了系统的研究，从环境、工艺、安全、经济、工期的角度建立了拆除方案评估指标体系，并综合运用群决策层次分析理论和模糊数学理论对拆除方案进行系统的评估。经实例验证，所建立的评估指标体系，可科学、公正、快捷地对方案进行评估，为决策者提供科学的决策基础。     

Evaluation of mine tailings effects on a benthic marine infaunal community over 29 years

Benthic infaunal and sediment data collected over 29 years were used to examine the extent and geographic range of effects and recovery from submarine tailings deposition. Empirical data were used to determine extreme and moderate effects, and identify near-, mid- and far-field zones. A simple probability test using overlap in frequency distributions was then used to determine less obvious effects, identify "normal" or "reference" conditions, and verify the geographic range of effect zones. Tailings thickness and sediment particulate copper were elevated from the outfall to 16-20 km distant, particularly below discharge depth (50 m). Changes in tailings thickness and copper levels before, during and after mining showed three distinct impact zones below discharge depth: near-field (<5 km from outfall); mid-field (5-16 km); and far-field (20 + km). Consistent faunal declines during mining were noted at sediment particulate copper levels >300 microg g(-1), and sediment tailings thickness > 15-20 cm. Extreme impoverishment at these sediment levels were; < 100 animals/m2, <2.5 g/m2 biomass and <7 taxa per station. No stations with >300 microg g(-1) copper and 20 cm tailings had more than 40 taxa. Amphipods were particularly affected by tailings, with distributions reflecting the instability in sediments from heavy deposition and/or shifting of tailings due to resuspension. The probability testing method assumed that reference conditions existed in far-field stations. There was no difference in abundance distributions between near-, mid- and far-field zones. Total taxa per station during mining was significantly reduced (<45) in both near- and mid-field stations compared with far-field (less than 10% overlap in distributions). One midfield station in Quatsino Sound (23) was in reference condition throughout the study period. Post-closure stations in the near- and mid-field had total taxa numbers approaching far-field conditions (overlap of 62% in distributions). Within 3 years following closure, total taxa values were within the far-field range for all stations sampled. Biomass showed a distinct decline in the near-field during mining, but with more overlap in near-field and far-field distributions (27%) than for total taxa per station, and was returning to far-field conditions in the post-closure years. A multivariate (Bray-Curtis) measure of dissimilarity indicated that the near- and mid-field infaunal compositions were distinct from the far-field during mining (< 10% overlap in distributions). The mid-field composition overlapped more with the far-field in the post-closure years, but the near-field composition did not, suggesting that the mine tailings are still affecting the fauna. The most abundant taxon in each of the reference and near-field station groups both showed significantly distinct relative abundance distributions between near- and far-field stations. In summary, the probability method showed that species richness, biomass, species composition and indicator taxa were useful for differentiating affected and non-affected stations. Polychaetes recolonize stable tailings most quickly, and have dominated the tailings stations in the post-closure years. Amphipods have recolonized sporadically, but seem to be highly sensitive to tailings stability. There was no evidence of recovery in dominant bivalves or echinoderms within three years after mine closure.     

A fuzzy approach to the lectotype optimization of offshore platforms

Lectotype optimization of offshore platforms is of particular importance in the concept design process. Lectotype optimization involves multiple objectives with uncertainty and so is a problem of multiple attribute decision making. To date, there have been few published works on this topic in the context of offshore engineering. This paper develops a framework and methodology for evaluation of offshore platform alternatives, where a fuzzy optimum model is proposed to integrate the influence of each objective in the criteria set, and a new weight-assessing method is developed to mimic the decision maker’s experience and preference based on complementary pairwise comparisons. A case study shows that the new framework and methodology is scientific, reasonable and easy to use in practice.     

1—3年强震危险区预测的指标体系

强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈这了范围不超过１００００ｋｍ＾２的５个强震危险区，已成功地对１９９３年１０月２日若羌６．６级地震、１９９５年５月２日乌苏５．８级     

地震活动时序谱的涨落统计特征与地震活跃期

为寻求地震活动演化的统计判据，本文采用多项式拟合法展示地震时序谱之涨落谱，以分维函数法判断最小邻间距（NNS）分布的Poisson性，然后采用MKS无参量法判别涨落谱之统计稳定性，确定NNS分布的转变区，具体研讨了四川、云南若干震区地震活动时序谱的涨落统计分布，发现地震活跃期到来时NNS分布表现出非Poisson化的特征。进一步通过改变和调节时序数据样本集之震级下限，并逐段前推进行统计计算的方式进一步验证结果的可靠性，客观地确定了这些震区地震活动时序涨落谱统计特征的转变期，使根据该统计法判断地震活跃期的方法论渐趋完善。     

岩体力学试验的理论分析

本文通过对岩石力学试验中岩石试件破坏方式的分析, 在理论上解释了岩体力学试验中经常遇到的一些力学现象并且作出了定量的回答, 同时还建立了岩石的各种破坏模式的判据。     

湘西自治州北部铅锌矿找矿标志及找矿远景区

湘西自治州北部铅锌矿带,处于桑植复向斜西南段,长100km以上,宽50km左右,矿带内铅锌矿点广布,受地层、构造、岩性的控制。上寒武统耗子沱群至下奥陶统大湾组共有7个含矿层位,北东向背斜倾伏端及北东向断裂、层间裂隙以及次级北西向横跨背斜是矿床控矿构造,有矿体赋存的含矿层有明显的硅化作用,且硅化体中Pb,Zn,Cu明显富集,分别为地层的66、32、8倍,Sr/Ba比值为0.60,无矿存在的硅化体则Pb,Zn,Cu含量接近地层或稍高于地层,Sr/Ba比值高达1.15。在砂子坡背斜南翼、红岩溪背斜北东端和南西倾伏端、盐井背斜,下奥陶统红花园组顶部含矿层内为找矿远景区。     

天山地区遥感解译及铀矿化地质特征

本文通过卫星照片解译对天山地区的地层进行了划分,尤其是通过线性构造的解译把天山地区分成了若干个不同性质的地块,并对构造规模进行了分级。此外,还讨论了新老构造的继承关系,构造与岩体之间的相互依存关系等。本文又通过环形体的解译进一步确定了火山岩的喷发期次、活动规模及其与铀矿化的关系。通过对花岗岩体侵入期次和相带的划分,进而在解译中配合四道能谱测量判读标志来分析不同影象地质体的可能含铀丰度。另外还探讨了褶皱构造各要素的半定最估算的可能性。     

钾盐矿床的物质来源和成矿机制

讨论钾及其有关物质的理化性质和地化行为，钾盐的物质来源，盐卤的变质、结晶分异、成矿条件和机制。富钾热液是形成钾盐矿床的重要物质来源之一。矿物岩石流体包裹体的富钾成分、富钾热泉、富钾盐湖均是寻找钾盐矿床的重要指示。     

Damming of large river by debris flow: Dynamic process and particle composition

The frequency and extent of debris flows have increased tremendously due to the extreme weather and the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Previous studies focused on the debris flow from gullies damming the mountain streams. In this paper, an equation for the run-out distance of debris flow in the main river is proposed based on the dynamic equation of debris flow at different slopes given by Takahashi. By undertaking field investigations and flume experiments, a new calculation method of the volume of debris flow damming large river is obtained. Using the percolation theory and the renormalization group theory it was deduced that the large particles should comprise more than 50% for forming a stable debris flow dam. Hence, the criteria of damming large river by debris flow is presented in terms of run-out distance and grain composition which was then validated through the event of damming river by debris flow at Gaojia gully, the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, Sichuan, China, on July 3, 2011.