应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.     

Evolution of 2:1 layered silicates in low-grade metamorphosed Liassic shales of Central Switzerland

White mica from the Liassic black shales and slates in Central Switzerland was analysed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and electron microprobe to determine its textural and compositional evolution during very low-grade prograde metamorphism. Samples were studied from the diagenetic zone, anchizone and epizone (T ≈100°–450 °C). Phyllosilicate minerals analysed include illite/smectite (I/S), phengite, muscovite, brammallite, paragonite, margarite and glauconite. Textural evolution primarily is towards larger, more defect-free grains with compositions that approach those of their respective end-members. The smectite-to-illite transformation reduced the amounts of the exchange components SiK_?1Al_?1, MgSiAl_?2, and Fe³⁺Al_?1. These trends continue to a lesser degree in the anchizone and epizone. Correlations between the proportion of smectite in I/S and the composition of I/S indicate that smectite layers may contain a high layer charge. Illite in I/S bears a compositional resemblance to macrocrystalline phengite in some samples, but is different in others. Paragonite first appears in the upper diagenetic zone or lower anchizone as an interlayer-deficient brammallite, and it may be mixed with muscovite on the nanometre scale. Owing to the small calculated structure factor for paragonite-muscovite superstructures, conventional X-ray powder diffraction cannot distinguish between mixed-layer structures and a homogeneous compositionally intermediate solid solutions. However, indirect TEM evidence shows that irregularly shaped domains of Na- and K-rich mica exist below 10 nm. Subsequent coarsening of domains at higher grades produced discrete paragonite grains at the margins of muscovite crystals or in laths parallel to the basal plane of the host muscovite. Margarite appears in the epizone and follows a textural evolution similar to paragonite in that mixtures of margarite, paragonite, and muscovite may initially occur on the nanometre scale. However, no evidence of interlayer-poor margarite has been found.     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

Strong Tides in 1964 and 1982

1StrongtideandastronomicalconditionsPartial solar eclipse occurred 4 times in 1964, 1982 and 2000 respectively. Time interval is about 3 Saros periods (one Saros period is 18 years and 10.33～11.33 days). Total lunar eclipse occurred 2 times in 1964 and 2000 respectively and 3 times in 1982. However, there was no lunar eclipse in 1966, 1984 and 2002. It seems that they had similar astro-nomical conditions and the best was in 1982. The studies about the effect of tide on the global climate…     

全球地球化学填图——历史发展与今后工作之建议

区域性与国家性的地球化学填图已取得进展,如何在可期待的未来以极低密度采样获得周期表内大多数元素在全球的分布,有赖于对填图理念的更新及采样介质、采样部署与采样方法研究的进展。英国Webb等发现在数平方千米至数十平方千米汇水盆地之河口采集水系沉积物样品,其分析结果可大致逼近其上游汇水盆地内土壤中元素之平均值。挪威及中国的研究工作表明在更大河流(其汇水盆地达数百、数千以至数万平方千米)的河口采样,这一规律依旧适用。看来,这种分形规律还可进一步延展至世界上一些汇水盆地达数十万至百万以上平方千米的主要入海河口,但这方面尚需作更多的研究。在这种新的填图理念指导下,提出了为实现全球地球化学填图的短期研究与试点计划和长期全面实现之规划。     

Reliability-Based Optimal Design for Very Large Floating Structure

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带乘性噪声的一类非线性系统的滤波算法

针对带乘性噪声的一类非线性系统,给出了1种带单重渐消因子的强跟踪状态滤波算法。该算法将非线性系统线性化后,采用了线性最小方差估计方法来进行状态估计,通过运用正交原理和引入渐消因子,使得滤波效果具有强跟踪的优良性能。该算法扩展了卡尔曼滤波在带乘性噪声非线性系统状态估计中的应用范围。仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性。     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

一个南海热带气旋发展的环流特征分析

本文用ECMWF2.5×2.5网格点资料通过一个例子,对有利于南海热带气旋发展的环流场作了详细的分析,发现几点事实:(1)扰动在风的垂直切变较大的环境中仍可发展。(2)扰动位于中、低空西南急流左侧,高空南支东风急流右侧时,有利发展。(3)中,低空西南急流形成了扰动环流的强风潮,强风潮从扰动南侧入角,并包围扰动的东半圆。(4)扰动中、低层的入流和高层的外流呈现严重的不对称性。(5)当扰动发展到一定强度时,对南海热带季风环流圈的加强起到正反馈作用。