Asymptotic Rayleigh instantaneous unit hydrograph

The instantaneous unit hydrograph for a channel network under general linear routing and conditioned on the network magnitude,N, tends asymptotically, asN grows large, to a Rayleigh probability density function. This behavior is identical to that of the width function of the network, and is proven under the assumption that the network link configuration is topologically random and the link hydraulic and geometric properties are independent and identically distributed random variables. The asymptotic distribution depends only on a scale factor, , where is a mean link wave travel time.     

岩石矿物细胞元随机性参数赋值方法研究

数值计算中利用随机分布对各单元赋予不同的物理力学参数来考虑岩石的非均质性,赋值过程是纯随机的,并没有考虑岩石矿物组成的结构特征。故提出一种新的岩石非均质参数赋值方法--岩石矿物细胞元随机性参数赋值方法,基于岩石矿物种类及其含量定义细胞元类别判定区间,利用Monte Carlo方法对各个细胞元进行矿物类别判定,并进行相应的参数赋值,通过各矿物细胞元的随机混合体来描述岩石的非均质性。该方法既考虑了组成岩石的矿物种类及其含量（结构特征）,又考虑了组成矿物在岩石中的随机分布特征。针对矿物分布的随机特征,利用两矿物细胞元混合模型和三矿物细胞元混合模型进行数值试验,研究了矿物细胞元随机分布特征对岩石宏观力学参数的影响。研究结果表明,岩石矿物细胞元随机性参数赋值方法具有结构性和随机性的双重特性,其随机性不依赖于随机参数,岩石宏观力学参数受细胞元随机性特征的影响很小。     

Spatio-temporal point pattern analysis on Wenchuan strong earthquake

For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aftershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershoc...     

Karst database implementation in Minnesota: analysis of sinkhole distribution

This paper presents the overall sinkhole distributions and conducts hypothesis tests of sinkhole distributions and sinkhole formation using data stored in the Karst Feature Database (KFD) of Minnesota. Nearest neighbor analysis (NNA) was extended to include different orders of NNA, different scales of concentrated zones of sinkholes, and directions to the nearest sinkholes. The statistical results, along with the sinkhole density distribution, indicate that sinkholes tend to form in highly concentrated zones instead of scattered individuals. The pattern changes from clustered to random to regular as the scale of the analysis decreases from 10–100 km² to 5–30 km² to 2–10 km². Hypotheses that may explain this phenomenon are: (1) areas in the highly concentrated zones of sinkholes have similar geologic and topographical settings that favor sinkhole formation; (2) existing sinkholes change the hydraulic gradient in the surrounding area and increase the solution and erosional processes that eventually form more new sinkholes.     

评价旱涝灾害风险的模糊随机方法

风险分析中的不确定现象存在大量的模糊性和随机性，利用模糊学期望将模糊性与随机性相结合，给出了模糊随机风险的定义，进而提出了一种风险评价的新方法。该方法对于一些无法获得更丰富资料的事件的评价有较好的效果，并且评价结果以区间形式给出，提高了精确度。     

当代大气科学方法论及其展望述评

从方法论的高度上阐述大气科学中关于"确定论"和"随机论"两种主导思想的研究方法。指出,确定论不再是唯一占统治地位的方法论,不确定性的客观存在已经为愈来愈多的科学事实所证明。天气气候变化过程,既有确定性的一面,又存在着不确定性的一面。必须正确认识两者对立统一的辩证关系。文中指出,由于"新三论"的异军突起,必须重新认识自然界历来就存在的必然性现象及其动力学规律、偶然性现象及其统计规律、既必然又偶然的混沌现象及其非线性规律及其三者的相互联系。因而在大气科学研究中,确定性方法和随机性方法必须有机结合,而其新的结合点正是混沌理论及其非线性科学。     

Lakes on fractal surfaces: A null hypothesis for lake-rich landscapes

A class of stochastic processes known as fractional Brownian motion (fBm) provides strikingly realistic simulations of certain types of terrain, particularly those which appear to be unmodified by geomorphological and geological processes. In addition to their less serious applications in video games and science fiction movies, fractal terrain simulations have proven useful in a number of areas of spatial analysis. For example, they can provide sample data sets for testing the efficiency of data structures and algorithms designed for topographic applications. Previous work has shown that stream networks simulated on fBm surfaces show the same deviations from accepted theories of channel network topology as do real stream networks, implying that such deviations originate in the geometrical constraints of packing channels onto surfaces, rather than from geological or other environmental controls. In effect, this work demonstrates the usefulness of fBm as a null hypothesis for terrain. One difficulty, however, stems from the abundant pits which occur in the simulations, because peaks and pits are equally likely. Flooding of pits on fBm surfaces was simulated to obtain lakes. Lake-rich stream networks were extracted and represented with a suitable integer code. The relative frequencies of various network topologies and groups of topologies were compared to known characteristics of channel networks on real lake-rich landscapes. Lake-string topologies are significantly less abundant than in glaciated landscapes. Lake areas show good fits to hyperbolic distributions, but lake in-degrees do not fit the negative binomial model. fBm surfaces are appropriate null hypotheses of scale-free, lake-rich landscapes.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Preliminary streamflow data analyses prior to water resources planning study / Analyses préliminaires des données de débit en vue d'une étude de planification des ressources en eau

Abstract

The analysis and use of hydrological data for decision making in water resources planning and management can only be meaningful if the data possess the appropriate characteristics. In general, it is customary that data being analysed are consistent, free of trend and constituting a stochastic process whose random component is described by an appropriate probability distribution hypothesis. This paper describes, using hypothetical numerical examples where possible, some of the commonly used tests for establishing the presence or otherwise of these attributes in hydrological data series. The tests were then applied to actual streamflow data records from seven sites, in Iran and England, which formed the basis of an extensive water resources planning study carried out recently. In general, the data from all seven sites possessed the right attributes, which made their use in the wider water resources planning study straightforward.     

RIPARIAN VEGETATION AND SANDBAR MORPHOLOGY ALONG THE LOWER LITTLE COLORADO RIVER,ARIZONA

The distribution of riparian vegetation in relation to channel morphology is poorly understood in canyon rivers, which are characterized by in-channel fluvial sediment deposits rather than flood plains. This study focuses on vegetation and sandbar characteristics in two reaches of the lower Little Colorado River canyon in Arizona–one reach with ephemeral flow from the watershed, and another with perennial baseflow from a spring. Both reaches have been colonized by the exotic Tamarix chinensis, a riparian species known for its geomorphic influence on river channels. On the basis of a sampling of 18 bars, results show that vegetation frequency and density is significantly greater in the perennial study reach. However, sandbar morphology variables do not differ between reaches, despite a significantly narrower and deeper ephemeral channel. Hydraulic calculations of flood depths and Pearson correlations between bar and vegetation variables indicate reach-specific biogeomorphic relationships. In the ephemeral reach, higher bars are less affected by flood inundation, support older vegetation, and may be more stable habitat for vegetation. In the wider perennial reach where bars are lower and more expansive, vegetation patterns relate to bar size, Tamarix being most common on the largest bars. Overall results suggest that (1) vegetation variation relates to baseflow hydrology, (2) bar formation relates to high discharge events, and (3) vegetation patterns respond to, rather than influence, sandbar form in this canyon riparian system.     

Randomness: a property of the mathematical and physical systems

ABSTRACT

This article is a concept paper, which discusses the definition of randomness, and the sources of randomness in the mathematical system as well as in the physical system (the Universe). We document that randomness is an inherited property of mathematics and of the physical world, shaping all observed forms and structures, and we discuss its role.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor E. Volpi