天山公路地质灾害决策支持地理信息系统的设计研究

天山公路由于其特殊复杂地形、地质条件及受降雨、地下水等因素,严重影响其正常通行,同时天山公路还经常受到泥石流、滑坡、崩塌、溜砂坡等地质灾害的危害,这对该公路稳定性和沿线居民的安全性都具有一定的威胁。因此,运用先进的技术手段,建立一套适应于天山公路的地质灾害决策支持信息系统就显得尤其重要。该系统的建立,对天山公路的建设改造和管理提供了强有力的支持。天山公路地质灾害决策支持地理信息系统利用强大的ArcEngine开发组件,针对新疆天山公路实际,引入RS、GIS的相关理论、方法和技术分析手段,采用相应的数学分析评价模型,对提高天山公路地质灾害防治管理水平和地质灾害的有效防治,以及评价决策等方面,都具有重要的意义。     

上海市防汛辅助决策系统研究

针对威胁上海的三大水灾，研制暴雨积水模型、风暴潮模型、河网水力模型、灾害评估模型，在GIS基础上建立了上海市防汛辅助决策系统，实现了对处于平原感潮河网的上海市洪涝灾害的实时监测、分析预报、风险评估和网上发布。为分析洪涝形势、制定防汛成灾方案、进行灾情评估以及工程管理，提供准确、及时、全面的信息支持。阐述了系统的总体设计、功能模块、关键技术和特色，分析了GIS、水动力学模型在系统中的作用。     

交互式多目标决策新方法及其在水资源系统规划中的应用

在目标满意度和目标总体协调度的基础上构造了一种新的交互式多目标决策方法,运用欧式距离判断来描述目标总体协调度,避免了目标权重人为确定的任意性,且能充分体现决策者的主观愿望,便于实际操作应用.水资源系统规划的多目标决策实例分析表明该方法有效可行.     

Application of ICTs in Airspace Management and Collaborative Decision-Making—Analyzing the Risk Avoidance in the Condition of Risky Weather as an Example

The application of ICTs makes structural change of the development and effective utilization of airspace. Next generation air transportation system (NextGen) includes new automation concepts with automated information to support the traffic control decision-making. As a result, in the field of academia and industry, air traffic controllers integrate information automatically while making decisions to change the previous manually integrated and decided pattern. The safety ability of airspace is reduced and airspace system is endangered under risky weather conditions of airspace. So there is an urgent demand for new information and communication technologies. The paper is an overview of the information constitution and support of NextGen and provides the study of the development of technique of airspace collaborative decision-makings to confirm the new features based on ICTs. It contains basic application-the input of data and output of the routes of airspace management and collaborative decision-making, and general application-the choose of probability nets of avoiding risky weather, and special application-the affection in the management of the air routes, which are made up of position and direction. The research shows the accurate schedule characteristics of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs, which made the space accurate by time accurate. Second, the visualization of airspace management and collaborative decision-making based on ICTs made the maps of flight path under mobile data quickly generated. This could make the fully development and utilization of national airspace, ensure safety, and reduce air traffic controllers’ workload and the costs in delaying and operating in risky weather.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

一种基于微服务架构的突发事件预警辅助决策系统的设计与实现

单体式架构应用在突发事件预警辅助决策系统开发中不能满足现实需求,本文引入了微服务架构设计开发该辅助决策系统.通过分析微服务架构在复杂系统中相对于传统单体式架构的应用优势,设计出一种基于微服务架构的突发事件预警信息发布辅助决策系统,该系统选用Spring Cloud微服务框架,并对其进行适当的扩展,创建了基于该系统设计的注册中心与网关.系统采用二三维一体化地理信息系统作为展示平台,通过接入各行业静态、危险源动态监测数据,根据设定的模型进行数据融合、处理,辅助进行预警信息生成、发布及应急处置阶段的指挥决策.所设计方案在湖北省突发事件预警发布辅助决策系统中得以实际应用,验证了该类系统使用微服务架构的合理性和有效性.     

广西便携式决策气象服务系统

介绍广西便携式决策服务系统的设计思路和开发过程，指出：融合因特网浏览器技术、以Ｗｅｂ网站和超文本网页方式来组织构建决策气象眼务系统，是实现决策服务内容表现形式向生动化、形象化和多媒体化转变的重要途径。     

水资源优化利用中两类数学模型间的分析比较

近期全球气候变化及人类经济活动规模的扩大，对人类赖以生存的自然环境造成很大影响，其中维持生态平衡的主导因子之一──水资源时空分布的变化，引起了人们极大的关注。尤其是干旱地区水资源表现出的稀缺性，已严重影响到人们将来的生存和经济发展问题。针对这种情况，人们在开发和利用水资源的过程中，建立了各种模型，以期对水资源进行精确的定量化研究，达到对水资源优化利用和管理的目的。通过比较“连续寻优的优化模型”和“离散方案的多目标密切值模型”，分析其各自的原理和规化思想，对其各自的预测功能进行了讨论，进而说明了两类模型的应用范围。提出将两类模型加以综合，然后应用于同一研究地区、以期得到更为优良的结果，为研究地区的经济发展提供可靠的决策依据。     

工程结构抗震设防标准的决策分析

提出了工程结构抗震设防标准的决策方法,该决策方法以结构初始造价分析和地震损失分析为基础。建立了结构初始造价与设计烈度的关系,并提出了地震损失的估计方法。使用该决策方法导出了最佳设计烈度和重现周期的解析表达式,从而得出了对抗震设计具有重要意义的结论。     

未来的天气气候预测体系

天气气候预测中的不确定性是不可避免的。它一方面给用户或有关决策者带来很大的困难，同时也给科学工作者提出了新的研究课题。文章较为系统地评述了近几年出现的关于如何发展未来气象预测体系的若干观点，根据风险经济学和决策理论，构建了一个未来天气气候预测体系的概念模型。其主要思想是将气象预测过程同用户决策过程有机地结合起来，充分利用来自用户的知识和风险管理经验，形成一个相互作用协同发展的预测体系。