“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

Wetland hydroperiod classification in the western prairies using multitemporal synthetic aperture radar

Wetlands represent one of the world's most biodiverse and threatened ecosystem types and were diminished globally by about two‐thirds in the 20th century. There is continuing decline in wetland quantity and function due to infilling and other human activities. In addition, with climate change, warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration are reducing wetland surface and groundwater supplies, further altering wetland hydrology and vegetation. There is a need to automate inventory and monitoring of wetlands, and as a study system, we investigated the Shepard Slough wetlands complex, which includes numerous wetlands in urban, suburban, and agricultural zones in the prairie pothole region of southern Alberta, Canada. Here, wetlands are generally confined to depressions in the undulating terrain, challenging wetlands inventory and monitoring. This study applied threshold and frequency analysis routines for high‐resolution, single‐polarization (HH) RADARSAT‐2, synthetic aperture radar mapping. This enabled a growing season surface water extent hyroperiod‐based wetland classification, which can support water and wetland resource monitoring. This 3‐year study demonstrated synthetic aperture radar‐derived multitemporal open‐water masks provided an effective index of wetland permanence class, with overall accuracies of 89% to 95% compared with optical validation data, and RMSE between 0.2 and 0.7 m between model and field validation data. This allowed for characterizing the distribution and dynamics of 4 marsh wetlands hydroperiod classes, temporary, seasonal, semipermanent, and permanent, and mapping of the sequential vegetation bands that included emergent, obligate wetland, facultative wetland, and upland plant communities. Hydroperiod variation and surface water extent were found to be influenced by short‐term rainfall events in both wet and dry years. Seasonal hydroperiods in wetlands were particularly variable if there was a decrease in the temporary or semipermanent hydroperiod classes. In years with extreme rain events, the temporary wetlands especially increased relative to longer lasting wetlands (84% in 2015 with significant rainfall events, compared with 42% otherwise).     

珠江口淇澳岛滨海湿地沉积环境演化及其对人类活动的响应

滨海湿地作为人类活动和全球变化反应最为敏感的区域，其沉积记录可以反映出周边地区环境变化及人类活动信息。珠江口淇澳岛滨海湿地钻孔分析结果表明，在中全新世期间淇澳岛附近海域为河口湾环境，在风化层以上开始出现淤积，但在4 200 a BP前后受极冷气候的影响，沉积物粗化；自2 500 a BP以来，沉积环境相对稳定，在小冰期期间略有变化。沉积速率计算结果显示:淇澳岛附近海域自中全新世高海面以来的平均沉积速率为0.29 cm/a，4 160~2 500 a BP、2 500 a BP-1488年、1488-1893年、1893-1986年、1990-2007年期间的平均沉积速率分别为:0.17 cm/a、0.23 cm/a、0.35 cm/a、1.37 cm/a和5.94 cm/a，沉积速率逐渐增大，反映了珠江三角洲演化过程中沉积相与沉积环境的变化；1986-1990年期间的海堤建造极大地扰动了该钻孔上部的沉积过程，在工程施工期间共沉积了厚度约112 cm的沉积层，而在海堤建成后，沉积速率也显著增大。沉积物总有机碳、总氮和C/N值的垂向分布表明，在4 160~2 500 a BP期间受海洋环境影响较大，沉积物中有机碳以海源为主，2 500 a BP以来沉积物中碳、氮含量明显增大，C/N也相应变大，有机碳主要来源于陆源输入，但在小冰期期间海源有机碳贡献略有所增大；近百年来由于受人类活动影响显著，陆源有机碳的贡献快速增加。     

极地低压对费拉姆海峡大西洋入流水天气尺度变化的影响

The Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait(78°50′N) has synoptic scale variability based on an array of moorings over the period of 1998–2010. The synoptic scale variability of Atlantic inflow, whose significant cycle is 3–16 d, occurs mainly in winter and spring(from January to April) and is related with polar lows in the Barents Sea. On the synoptic scale, the enhancement(weakening) of Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait is accompanied by less(more)polar lows in the Barents Sea. Wind stress curl induced by polar lows in the Barents Sea causes Ekman-transport,leads to decrease of sea surface height in the Barents Sea, due to geostrophic adjustment, further induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly around the Barents Sea, and causes the weakening of the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait. Our results highlight the importance of polar lows in forcing the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait and can help us to further understand the effect of Atlantic warm water on the change of the Arctic Ocean.     

杭州湾中部实测波浪特性分析

利用杭州湾中部一年实测波浪资料,分析该地区的波参数统计变化特性,采用最小二乘法拟合得出相关参数之间的关系式,并统计分析了频谱特性。结果表明:杭州湾中部以小浪和轻浪为主,在各月分布较为均匀,年平均周期为2.97 s;最大一次波浪过程为冷空气影响所致,影响强度大于台风莫拉克;常浪向分布在东北至东南向,其中又以小浪出现较多,对应的波周期以2~4 s为主;强浪向主要分布在西北和东北方向,对应的波周期主要分布在3~5 s;多数特征波参数之间相关关系较好;由谱分析得知风浪占多数,且以单峰为主。研究结果可为相关工程和理论研究提供基础资料。     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

太阳发电机理论研究进展

太阳发电机理论主要解释太阳磁场的起源和演化，是太阳物理中最基本、最重要的问题之一．对它的研究不仅具有重要的科学价值，而且对空间天气的预测和空间技术的发展有一定的影响．随着日震学的发展，该理论也得到了很大改进。从相关观测入手，综述了发电机理论需解释的观测事实，以及为发电机理论提供约束的太阳内部动力学结构；介绍了基本理论和近来的主流模型，并指出尚待解决的问题和进一步的努力方向。     

Application of micropolar plasticity to post failure analysis in geomechanics

A micropolar elastoplastic model for soils is formulated and a series of finite element analyses are employed to demonstrate the use of a micropolar continuum in overcoming the numerical difficulties encountered in application of finite element method in standard Cauchy–Boltzmann continuum. Three examples of failure analysis involving a deep excavation, shallow foundation, and a retaining wall are presented. In all these cases, it is observed that the length scale introduced in the polar continuum regularizes the incremental boundary value problem and allows the numerical simulation to be continued until a clear collapse mechanism is achieved. The issue of grain size effect is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.