Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.     

A modified numerical model for moisture-salt transport in unsaturated sandy soil under evaporation

Soil salinization, caused by salt migration and accumulation underneath the soil surface, will corrode structures. To analyze the moisture-salt migration and salt precipitation in soil under evaporation conditions, a mathematical model consisting of a series of theoretical equations is briefly presented. The filling effect of precipitated salts on tortuosity factor and evaporation rate are taken into account in relevant equations. Besides, a transition equation to link the solute transport equation before and after salt precipitation is proposed. Meanwhile, a new relative humidity equation deduced from Pitzer ions model is used to modify the vapor transport flux equation. The results show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the published experimental data, especially for the simulation of volume water content and evaporation rate of Toyoura sand, which confirm the reliability and applicability of the proposed model.     

自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

景观生态分类与制图浅议

本文在查阅分析大量文献和前人研究的基础上 ,对目前景观生态分类和景观制图作了详细的对比分析 ,认为景观分类需要结合实际区域现状 ,采用逐级分类的方法 ;同时利用 ETM遥感影像为数据源 ,以天山北麓为示范区.研制其土地利用土地覆盖变化的景观类型图。     

平衡剖面的制作流程及其地质意义

平衡剖面技术是地质思维和计算机技术的结晶,使对断层构造的研究提高到定量阶段,其依据是在垂直构造走向的剖面上,地层长度和面积(2D)或体积(3D)是均衡的。在此原理基础上利用数学手段对盆地的构造发育史进行正演和反演模拟,直观地再现地下构造的原始几何形态,迅速提供地震剖面的构造解释方案,并对解释结果进行检验(不平衡的剖面其解释一般有问题),为深刻认识构造发育史、分析油气运移及聚集规律提供依据,提高了工作效率。其结果也为盆地模拟、油藏模拟、定量计算构造伸缩量等地质研究打下了坚实的基础[1]。     

Laboratory kinetics of C2H radical reactions with ethane, propane, and n-butane at T = 96-296 K: implications for Titan

The kinetics of the reactions of C₂H radical with ethane (k₁), propane (k₂), and n-butane (k₃) are studied over the temperature range of T = 96-296 K with a pulsed Laval nozzle apparatus that utilizes a pulsed laser photolysis-chemiluminescence technique. The C₂H decay profiles in the presence of both the alkane reactant and O₂ are monitored by the CH(A²Δ) chemiluminescence tracer method. The results, together with available literature data, yield the following Arrhenius expressions: k₁(T) = (0.51 ± 0.06) × 10⁻¹⁰ exp[(−76 ± 30)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-800 K), k₂(T) = (0.98 ± 0.32) × 10⁻¹⁰exp[(−71 ± 60)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-361 K), and k₃(T) = (1.23 ± 0.26) × 10⁻¹⁰ cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-297 K). At T = 296 K, k₁ is measured as a function of total pressure and has little or no pressure dependence. The results from this work support a direct hydrogen abstraction mechanism for the title reactions. Implications to the atmospheric chemistry of Titan are discussed.