HadCM3模式下钱塘江流域设计暴雨估算

全球气候变化背景下,极端水文气象事件发生的频率和强度都受到了直接影响,研究气候变化对极端水文气象事件的影响对防灾减灾和工程设计等至关重要.采用了联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告中给出的A1B、A2和B1三种温室气体排放情景,选用大气环流模式Had-CM3,利用随机天气发生器LARS-WG生成逐日气象资料,结合P-Ⅲ型曲线和线性矩方法分析计算了钱塘江流域21世纪中叶的设计暴雨情况.结果表明:LARS-WG天气发生器在钱塘江流域有较好的模拟效果;在A1B和B1情景下,钱塘江流域各站点不同重现期下的设计暴雨值基本呈增大趋势,其中A1B情景下杭州站百年一遇的设计暴雨值为209.14mm,比基准期增大11.0％.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana

Abstract

This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and downscaled climate projections from the ensemble of two global climate models (ECHAM4 and CSIRO) forced by the A1FI greenhouse-gas scenario to estimate the impact of climate change on streamflow in the White Volta and Pra river basins, Ghana. The SWAT model was calibrated for the two basins and subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections to estimate the streamflow for the 2020s (2006–2035) and 2050s (2036–2075). Relative to the baseline, the mean annual streamflow estimated for the White Volta basin for the 2020s and 2050s showed a decrease of 22 and 50%, respectively. Similarly, the estimated streamflow for the 2020s and 2050s for the Pra basin showed a decrease of 22 and 46%, respectively. These results underscore the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change in order to enhance water security within the two basins.

Citation Kankam-Yeboah, K., Obuobie, E., Amisigo, B., and Opoku-Ankomah, Y., 2013. Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 773–788.     

基于气候模式筛选的碧流河水库流域未来期径流预估研究

为评估IPCC第四次评估报告中的15个全球气候模式对碧流河水库流域气温和降水的模拟效果,通过LARS-WG降尺度方法,选取了HADCM3等3种气候模式,分析其在A2、A1B和B1三种排放情景下未来期(2011~2040年)碧流河水库流域气温和降水的变化,进而结合ABCD月尺度水文模型,预估未来气候变化下碧流河水库流域的径流变化特征,为流域水资源规划和管理提供依据。结果表明:CNCM3、HADCM3和IPCM4三个模式对碧流河水库流域模拟效果较好;与基准期相比,未来期多年平均降水变幅为-6.4%~3.7%,多年平均温度升高0.8℃~1.2℃,实际蒸发增幅为2.4%~4.4%;多年平均年径流量变化范围为4.8~6.2(108m3),三种排放情景下各模式平均径流量均呈减少趋势,较基准期减幅为-4.7%~-27.1%,未来水资源利用将会面临更大挑战。