基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Ephemeral rollover points and clinothem evolution in the modern Po Delta based on repeated bathymetric surveys

Reconstructions of ancient delta systems rely typically on a two-dimensional (2D) view of prograding clinothems but may miss their three-dimensional (3D) stratigraphic complexity which can, instead, be best documented on modern delta systems by integrating high-resolution geophysical data, historical cartography, core data and geomorphological reconstructions offshore. We quantitatively compare three precisely positioned, high-resolution multi-beam bathymetry maps in the delta front and pro delta sectors (0.3 to 10 m water depth) of Po di Pila, the most active of the modern Po Delta five branches. By investigating the detailed morphology of the prograding modern Po Delta, we shed new light on the mechanisms that control the topset to foreset transition in clinothems and show the temporal and spatial complexity of a delta and its pro delta slope, under the impact of oceanographic processes. This study documents the ephemeral nature of the rollover point at the transition between sandy topset (fluvial, delta plain to mouth-bar) and muddy seaward-dipping foreset deposits advancing, in this case, in >20 m of water depth. Three multibeam surveys, acquired between 2013 and 2016, document the complexity in space and time of the topset and foreset regions and their related morphology, a diagnostic feature that could not be appreciated using solely 2D, even very high-resolution, seismic profiles. In addition, the comparison of bathymetric surveys gathered with one-year lapses shows the migration of subaqueous sand dunes on the clinothem topset, the formation of ephemeral cut-and-fill features at the rollover point (few m below mean sea level), the presence of collapse depressions derived by sagging of sediments and fluid expulsion (possibly induced by storm waves) on the foreset, and splays of sand likely reflecting gravity flows on the lower foreset. Though the modern Po Delta is anthropogenic in many respects, its subaqueous clinothem can be studied as a scale model for ancient clinothems that are less resolved geometrically and far less constrained chronologically.     

徐闻南山镇红树林沉积物及红树植物中重金属的累积特征与迁移规律

为探究重金属在红树林沉积物及红树植物中的分布累积及迁移规律，选取了徐闻南山镇红树林为研究对象，通过测定红树林沉积物及红树植物不同部位（根、茎、叶）的重金属质量分数，运用富集因子、生物富集系数、转移系数及相关性分析等方法进行分析。结果表明：1）红树林沉积物重金属质量分数表现为铬（Cr）＞锌（Zn）＞镍（Ni）＞铜（Cu）＞铅（Pb）＞砷（As）＞汞（Hg）＞镉（Cd），为中等变异程度；除了镍（Ni）元素外，其余7种重金属未超过国家一级标准，除了铅（Pb）元素外，其余7种重金属均超过广东省土壤环境背景值，说明研究区沉积物中重金属具有一定的积累效应。2）沉积物中砷（As）、铜（Cu）、锌（Zn）、汞（Hg）、镍（Ni）、铬（Cr）富集因子值均＞1.5，说明受到轻微人为活动影响；各站位镍（Ni）富集因子值均＞5，结合研究区背景，反映了镍（Ni）受到自然和人为输入的共同影响。3）白骨壤体内重金属主要集中在根部，而红海榄体内重金属在根茎叶中分布相对均匀。白骨壤根茎叶部位的大多数重金属质量分数远高于红海榄，说明白骨壤对重金属的吸附能力比红海榄强。汞（Hg）集中分布在植物的叶片部位，且与其他重金属之间相关性不明显；推测汞（Hg）主要通过叶片吸收进入植物体内，与交通运输污染有关。4）不同红树植物对不同重金属富集能力各异，白骨壤对重金属的富集能力表现为：镉（Cd）＞砷（As）＞铜（Cu）＞锌（Zn）＞汞（Hg）＞铅（Pb）＞镍（Ni）＞铬（Cr），红海榄表现为：镉（Cd）＞铜（Cu）＞汞（Hg）＞锌（Zn）＞铅（Pb）＞砷（As）＞镍（Ni）＞铬（Cr）。白骨壤和红海榄对汞（Hg）的运移能力都较强；红海榄对镉（Cd）的富集能力和转运能力都较强，而白骨壤对镉（Cd）富集能力较强，转运能力却较弱，这说明红树植物对重金属元素的富集能力与转运能力不存在正比关系。     

苏北浅滩沉积物中的大型绿藻微观繁殖体的垂直分布和物种多样性

本研究通过在2017年秋冬季组织实施的2个绿潮种源调查航次,研究苏北浅滩紫菜养殖区沉积物中的大型绿藻微观繁殖体的垂直分布和物种多样性。对沉积物中的微观繁殖体的定量实验结果表明:表层泥样中绿藻微观繁殖体的丰度最高,随着深度的增加迅速降低。在9月份表层沉积物中丰度为9±2ind./g,而在11月份表层丰度达到98±25ind./g;与9月份相比, 11月份浅滩沉积物中绿藻繁殖体数量呈现出显著升高的趋势。通过对51个绿藻样品的分子鉴定发现:沉积物中存在石莼属(Ulva)、尾孢藻属(Urospora)、盘苔属(Blidingia)等大型绿藻的微观繁殖体;数量占优是石莼属繁殖体,主要包括曲浒苔(Ulva flexuosa)、浒苔(Ulva prolifera)、扁浒苔(Ulva compressa)、缘管浒苔(Ulva linza);其中曲浒苔占据的比例最高,在9和11月份分别达到80.94%和73.33%。在2个调查航次中,都从沉积物中发现了绿潮浒苔的微观繁殖体,这些微观繁殖体是绿潮浒苔在苏北浅滩种源维持的重要方式和关键阶段,也构成了黄海浒苔绿潮连年暴发的"种子库"。     

Flexural deformation controls on Late Quaternary sediment dispersal in the Garo-Rajmahal Gap,NW Bengal Basin

Subsurface deformation is a driver for river path selection when deformation rates become comparable to the autogenic mobility rate of rivers. Here we combine geomorphology, soil and sediment facies analyses, and geophysical data of the Late Quaternary sediments of the central Garo-Rajmahal Gap in Northwest Bengal to link subsurface deformation with surface processes. We show variable sedimentation characteristics, from slow rates (<0.8 mm/year) in the Tista megafan at the foot of the Himalaya to nondeposition at the exposed surface of the Barind Tract to the south, enabling the development of mature soils. Combined subsidence in the Tista fan and uplift of the Barind Tract are consistent with a N-S flexural response of the Indian plate to loading of the Himalaya Mountains given a low value of elastic thickness (15–25 km). Provenance analysis based on bulk strontium concentration suggests a dispersal of sediment consistent with this flexural deformation—in particular the abandonment of the Barind Tract by a Pleistocene Brahmaputra River and the current extents of the Tista megafan lobes. Overall, these results highlight the control by deeply rooted deformation patterns on the routing of sediment by large rivers in foreland settings.     

Factors influencing biodeposit production by the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii

Laboratory experiments on the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii were used to investigate the short-term effects (7–8 days) of food type on rates of biodeposition and benthic substrate respiration. Post-feeding biodeposition rates ranged from 0.34 to 1.52?mg?g^?1?h^?1 (mean?=?0.50?mg g^?1?h^?1) and were unaffected by the addition of toxin-producing Microcystis. Addition of suspended sediment (30?mg?L^?1) visibly altered substrate composition, and increased total and inorganic biodeposit production rates by 24–33% compared to mussels fed commercial phytoplankton stock. Biodeposition rates of mussels in lake bed substrates were 38% higher than those in silica sand for identical feeding regimes, suggesting that a significant proportion of material produced in this experiment could have been derived from feeding on organic matter in the lake bed sediments. Respiration rates were higher in treatments with Microcystis but were unaffected by the presence of mussels. This laboratory study suggests that biodeposition by E. menziesii is resilient to short-term exposure to Microcystis, and highlights the ability of mussels to alter benthic substrate composition by incorporating suspended sediment into substrates.     

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。     

A CASE STUDY ON CONCENTRATION AND DECENTRALIZATION：BEHAVIOR AND DYNAMIC MECHANISM OF SPATIAL EVOLUTION IN METROPOLITAN AREA，NANJING，CHINA

In rapid socio-economic development,the process of concentration and dispersal of various elements tends to be more dramatic,tremendously influencing the shaping and transformation of the space in metropolitan area.Survey of spatial concentration and decentralization has thus become a basic method in examining metropolitan spatial evolution.In this research,three elements were selected as the essential indicators of the process:demographic density distribu-tion,employment density distribution and business office location.Performance of these elements in Nanjing City was exam-ined historically.As Nanjing City could be regarded as a representative of metropolitan areas in China,its situation large-ly suggestes the general characteristics in similar areas of China.Hence based on the investigation of Nanjing City,four general implications were highlighted.First ,metropolitan areas in China are in a violent process and shift of spatial concentra-tion and decentralization.Second,from now to at least the near future,concentration will continue to be the central fea-ture.Third,the landscape of metropolitan areas basically exhibits a dual structure character.The gap in environmental and ecological qualities among different districts will continue for a long time.Fourth,Central Business District (CBD) is playing an important role in helping to convert the traditionally single-centered city structure into a polycentric one.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。