A New Wavelet Method for Identification of Eddies and Assessment of Incidents on Islands of the Eastern Caribbean

Using two dimensional continuous wavelet transforms, a novel method for identification of mesoscale eddies is presented to facilitate extraction of characteristics for area, amplitude, type, and location from maps of sea level anomalies. In comparison with the previously established growing method for eddy identification, it is found that the wavelet method identifies more than twice the number of eddies and is particularly better at resolving small eddies down to the 0.25 degree resolution of the data. Such research into eddy identification and tracking is significant to the assessment of eddies with potential to impact on coastlines of small islands. The method is applied to the identification of eddies on tracks towards islands of the Eastern Caribbean over 23?years. Spatial and temporal variation in rate of occurrence and magnitude is established. For Barbados there is an average of 9 anticyclonic incidents a year with maximum amplitude of typically 0.22?m in the dry seasons and 0.16?m in the wet seasons. Seasonal variation is reversed for the other islands with twice the number of anticyclonic incidents having maximum amplitudes of about 0.20?m annually.     

大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。     

Structures in the phase space of a four dimensional symplectic map

We numerically investigate the projections of non periodic orbits in a 4-dimensional (4-D) symplectic map composed of two coupled 2-dimensional (2-D) maps. We describe in detail the structures that are produced in different planes of projection and we find how the morphology of the 4-D orbits is influenced by the features of the 2-D maps as the coupling parameter increases. We give an empirical law that describes this influence.     

Frequency analysis of a dynamical system

Frequency analysis is a new method for analyzing the stability of orbits in a conservative dynamical system. It was first devised in order to study the stability of the solar system (Laskar, Icarus, 88, 1990). It is a powerful method for analyzing weakly chaotic motion in hamiltonian systems or symplectic maps. For regular motions, it yields an analytical representation of the solutions. In cases of 2 degrees of freedom system with monotonous torsion, precise numerical criterions for the destruction of KAM tori can be found. For a 4D symplectic map, plotting the frequency map in the frequency plane provides a clear representation of the global dynamics and describes the actual Arnold web of the system.     

在线地图的空间认知研究

作为一种新的空间信息认知工具,在线地图适时性强,传播方便。文章总结了在线地图的特点和使用方式,并以交通查询为例分析了用户使用在线地图的地图信息认知过程、信息获取的阶段并根据以上分析得出了在线地图空间认知的一般规律。为数字环境下的空间信息表达与认知提供了理论依据。     

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。     

Hydrogeochemical investigations and groundwater provinces of the Friuli Venezia Giulia Plain aquifers,northeastern Italy

Water resources are a key factor, particularly for the planning of the sustainable regional development of agriculture, as well as for socio-economic development in general. A hydrochemical investigation was conducted in the Friuli Venezia Giulia aquifer systems to identify groundwater evolution, recharge and extent of pollution. Temperature, pH, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids, alkalinity, total hardness, SAR, Ca²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄ ²⁻, NO₃ ⁻, HCO₃ ⁻ _, water quality and type, saturation indexes and the environmental stable isotope δ¹⁸O were determined in 149 sampling stations. The pattern of geochemical and oxygen stable isotope variations suggests that the sub-surface groundwater (from phreatic and shallow confined aquifers) is being recharged by modern precipitations and local river infiltrations. Four hydrogeological provinces have been recognised and mapped in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Plain having similar geochemical signatures. These provinces have different degrees of vulnerability to contamination. The deep confined groundwater samples are significantly less impacted by surface activities; and it appears that these important water resources have very low recharge rates and would, therefore, be severely impacted by overabstraction.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.