Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

High energy phenomena in eta carinae

We have investigated with BeppoSAX the long term behaviour of the harder X-ray component of the supposed supermassive binary system η Car along its 5.52 year cycle. We have found that in March 1998 during egress from the last December 1997 eclipse, this component was the same as outside eclipse, but for a large (×3.5) increase of NH _h , that can be attributed to the presence or formation of opaque matter in front of the source near periastron. Unexpectedly, at that time the iron 6.7 keV emission line was 40% stronger. BeppoSAX has for the first time found ahard X-ray tail extending to at least 50 keV, that cannot be adequately fitted with an additional hotter thermal component. The 2–100 keV spectrum of η Car is instead well fitted with an absorbed powerlaw spectrum with photon index 2.53, suggesting non-thermal emission as an alternative model for the core source.     

Evolutionary Processes in Low-Mass Binary Systems

We consider the evolution of certain low-mass binaries, incorporating models of (a) internal evolution, (b) tidal friction, (c) dynamo activity driven by an elementary α,Ω dynamo, (d) stellar wind driven by the activity, and (e) magnetic braking as a consequence of wind and poloidal dynamo-generated magnetic field. In some circumstances the stellar wind is found to remove mass on a nuclear timescale, as is necessary to explain some observed systems. We can hope that various uncertainties in the model may be clarified by a careful comparison of the models with such observed quantities as rotation periods. These are modified by processes (a), (b) and (e). Assuming that stellar evolution is slow, rotation rate should in some circumstances represent a balance between magnetic braking trying to slow the star down and tidal friction trying to spin it up. Preliminary attempts are promising, but indicate that some fine tuning is necessary. When there is a third body present, in an orbit which is inclined but not necessarily of short period, the eccentricity of a close binary can be strongly modified by ‘Kozai cycles’. We show that this may complicate attempts to account for spin rates of stars in close binaries.     

Opening angles, Lorentz factors and confinement of X-ray binary jets

We present a collation of the available data on the opening angles of jets in X-ray binaries, which in most cases are small (≲10°). Under the assumption of no confinement, we calculate the Lorentz factors required to produce such small opening angles via the transverse relativistic Doppler effect. The derived Lorentz factors, which are in most cases lower limits, are found to be large, with a mean >10, comparable to those estimated for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and much higher than the commonly assumed values for X-ray binaries of 2–5. Jet power constraints do not, in most cases, rule out such high Lorentz factors. The upper limits on the opening angles show no evidence for smaller Lorentz factors in the steady jets of Cygnus X-1 and GRS 1915+105. In those sources in which deceleration has been observed (notably  XTE J1550−564  and Cygnus X-3), some confinement of the jets must be occurring, and we briefly discuss possible confinement mechanisms. It is however possible that all the jets could be confined, in which case the requirement for high bulk Lorentz factors can be relaxed.     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.